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CyclonesOZ G’day, I’m Josh. I provide professional Australian severe weather, thunderstorm and cyclone forecasts, all independently produced.

My premium service offers long-range rainfall, storm and cyclone intelligence, available at cyclonesoz.com.au 🇦🇺⛈️ One of Australia's largest and most trustworthy sources of in depth weather and climate analysis. Covering everything storms, cyclones and weather. Opinions and analysis is always my own, consult other agencies for further information.

Multi-Day Storm Outbreak for Queensland & New South Wales From Tuesday, recurring thunderstorm activity driven by a seri...
11/10/2026

Multi-Day Storm Outbreak for Queensland & New South Wales

From Tuesday, recurring thunderstorm activity driven by a series of surface troughs and an increase in instability is likely across areas of Northern NSW and Southern/Southeastern/Central Queensland, bringing rainfall and localised severe storm impacts.

TUESDAY: Afternoon storm activity is likely across most of Southern Queensland, as well as through a wide swathe of Northern NSW, potentially impacting areas like Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Ipswich, Toowoomba, Grafton and Tamworth. Whilst instability remains strong closer to the coast, further inland a very moist atmosphere and shallow lapse rates as well as morning showers could erode a lot (not all) of the severe risk.

As a southerly change rides up the NSW coast in the afternoon moving into a moist and unstable environment underneath a strengthening upper disturbance, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential will likely open from Port Macquarie up to Lismore. This eases over the border, with Brisbane outside of this severe corridor.

There's a lot of interest around the storms on Tuesday, however once again whilst its the best chance of severe weather so far this storm season close to Brisbane, I wouldn't describe it as a dangerous or concerning set up at all. Best to be informed, not alarmed.

WEDNESDAY: As the southerly change moves north into another unstable environment inland from Bundaberg and Rockhampton, afternoon thunderstorm activity will be possible in Central Queensland. Models expect Brisbane to remain dry.

THURSDAY ONWARDS: An inland trough will strengthen underneath a very moist and unstable atmosphere, allowing for widespread recurring shower and thunderstorm activity to develop. It's too far out to understand the real severe potential at the end of the week, however its safe to assume that over a period of a week following Thursday, some substantial rainfall accumulations between 30-60mm are possible across Central and parts of Southern QLD. I'll have a more detailed forecast on this, tomorrow.

It's that time of the year to remain informed and in the know with thunderstorm activity! Whilst none of the next five days screams severe risk to me, thunderstorms can produce hazards worth your attention. On Tuesday, as mentioned, a severe storm risk corridor will likely open, further increasing certain (very isolated) risks in the far northeast of the state. Brisbane looks to miss out on the severe stuff this time thankfully!

More to come tomorrow. ~Josh

Severe thunderstorm risk increasing next week around Brisbane.A trough underneath an moist and unstable airmass moving i...
10/10/2026

Severe thunderstorm risk increasing next week around Brisbane.

A trough underneath an moist and unstable airmass moving into Eastern Australia will likely generate widespread thunderstorm activity on Tuesday, starting early in the morning in Northern NSW before expanding towards the coast in the afternoon, likely into Brisbane before the evening.

Whilst models are all expecting a reasonably unstable atmosphere especially closer to the coast (NENSW, SEQLD, those red shadings >2000j/kg muCAPE), further inland where wind shear remains strongest as an upper disturbance moves over will likely see chances curbed somewhat by morning convection.

It is difficult to outline the real severe potential on Tuesday for these reasons, however given the set up I don't doubt storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall at some point in the afternoon.

Also it is important to note that this is a standard pattern for this time of year, and the storms modeled (for now) don't look to be the variety that could cause substantial damage. Something to be aware of, not something to be overly concerned about. ~Josh

Rainfall increasing across Queensland next week. A surge of moisture streaming down from Northwestern Australia should c...
10/10/2026

Rainfall increasing across Queensland next week.

A surge of moisture streaming down from Northwestern Australia should converge along a developing surface trough, sparking rounds of recurring shower and thunderstorm activity from about Wednesday next week, across interior southern QLD and northern NSW.

Expect widespread falls between 30-60mm, with isolated falls to 100mm (maybe some places seeing even more than 100mm) across the Warrego, Maranoa, Central Highlands, Burnett, Capricornia, Northern Tablelands regions, as well as potentially the Southeast Coast and Southern Downs in QLD.

As with all thunderstorm events there will be winners and losers, however there is increasing confidence that over the span of 5-7 days starting next Wednesday, those in the black outline will see some moderate to locally heavy rainfall accumulations. ~Josh

Storm risk increasing around Brisbane and Southeast Queensland this weekend. Saturday’s storms are more likely inland, i...
09/10/2026

Storm risk increasing around Brisbane and Southeast Queensland this weekend.

Saturday’s storms are more likely inland, including parts of the Warrego, Maranoa and southwest Queensland. A few could produce damaging wind gusts, but the overall risk is low. Any evening storm reaching Brisbane looks more likely to be patchy and non-severe.

On Sunday, storms may extend across inland parts of southeast Queensland, including the Lockyer Valley, Scenic Rim, Southern Downs and Burnett. Brisbane’s best chance is west of the city, around Ipswich and further inland. Coastal areas, including the C*D, have a lower chance, but storms can’t be ruled out.

For Brisbane, the best chance for an afternoon storm is Sunday, and the most likely region for storm activity is the Ipswich area and those further west. Activity along the coast (and even in the C*D) is generally, more unlikely.

A surge in warm, moist air will work to destabilize the atmosphere through Southern Queensland and parts of Northern NSW, including around Brisbane, allowing for increased storm potential on Saturday and especially Sunday afternoons. Sunday is the day that sticks out as the day where more people will likely see/be impacted by storm activity, as the focus shifts closer to Brisbane.

The red outline marks where storms could develop at some point over the weekend. It doesn’t mean every location inside it will get a storm - some places will miss out. I do not believe Saturday or Sunday to be 'severe' or 'high end' storm days.

A separate, potentially stronger storm setup may develop on Tuesday, though there are still timing uncertainties. I’ll refine that outlook as it becomes clearer. ~Josh

09/10/2026

‼️LIVE intense hail as a powerful storm moves across Central Australia.

From Alice Springs this footage shows the significant accumulation of large hail in the region, which some stones measured up to 4cm in diameter.

Pretty gnarly even given the time of year!

Significant rainfall increase for Queensland. Tropical moisture and rising build-up heat should create more favourable c...
08/10/2026

Significant rainfall increase for Queensland.

Tropical moisture and rising build-up heat should create more favourable conditions for recurring thunderstorms from this weekend. The red outline shows the broader area that may see increased rainfall, including Brisbane, Toowoomba and Roma, with Mackay and Rockhampton in focus later.

It is important to note that at least initially (remainder of this week/weekend) rainfall remains pretty isolated, so there will be areas that cop it and there will also be places that miss out. It's purely luck of the draw, but the good news is forecast models (pictured ECMWF) are increasingly certain that sometime in the next 8-10 days, most of the outlined region will have at least 20mm to show for these storms, some likely a bit more.

Ramping up this weekend isolated thunderstorm coverage over southern Queensland (potentially including Brisbane on Sunday) will likely bring scattered downpours. Through early next week a large surface trough and strong upper trough look to greatly increase storm coverage across southern and central Queensland, allowing more places a chance to see thundery downpours. This could increase further at the end of next week, however beyond Friday the modeling is a bit loose (but looks very favorable for rainfall).

This pattern is exactly what would be expected for this time of year. As the build up ramps up across the NT and north QLD, moisture surging southeastward along the jet stream will work to create greater instability, which in turn increases the fuel available for thunderstorms, whilst also increasing the amount of precipitable moisture storms can utilize in producing useful rainfall as well.

So again whilst this rainfall is as a result of thunderstorms meaning there will unfortunately be areas that miss out on the more widespread swathe of 20-50mm outlined in this forecast, these unlucky dry spots will likely be a minority. This outbreak of storm activity certainly won't break the drought for most areas, but it will go a long, long way. Who is keen? ~Josh

Storm risk developing for Brisbane and Southeast Queensland this weekend. On Saturday and Sunday, areas in Southeast and...
08/10/2026

Storm risk developing for Brisbane and Southeast Queensland this weekend.

On Saturday and Sunday, areas in Southeast and Southern Queensland are likely to see further thunderstorm activity, thanks to an increase in instability over the region helping to generate traditional, mostly non-severe pulse thunderstorm activity.

On Saturday, the greatest chance for storm activity remains inland around Roma (red outline) whilst there is a chance extending closer to the coast, in the late afternoon hours. This doesn't rule out the possibility of a storm in Brisbane entirely, but the chance remains pretty low.

On Sunday, as instability climbs across coastal SEQLD and NENSW thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon for many areas. A passing shortwave trough could aid chances of storm activity further. Areas just inland from the coast (such as Brisbane's west, the Lockyer Valley, Northern Rivers and South Burnett regions) are most likely to see storm activity (pink outline).

Again to reiterate whilst instability remains strong for Saturday and especially Sunday (widespread mlCAPE values exceeding 1000j/kg, in some places even 2000j/kg), shear remains low meaning more traditional severe/supercell storm activity remains unlikely. There will likely be a couple storms that meet severe thresholds though, likely further inland and likely as a result of microburst activity, so make sure you remain in the know as the forecast evolves.

I'd like to finish off by emphasizing that this is standard, mostly non severe activity expected. Earlier in the week the MCS system (which CyclonesOZ correctly identified moving through Brisbane) generated a lot of unnecessary hype on other posts around it being the first real "severe risk" for the state, which it was not. I understand that changing conditions and forecasts can make it difficult to know what to expect. My aim is to be clear about what I’m forecasting, what I’m not, and where uncertainty remains. Tuesday is a good example of why those details, and why a well rounded analysis of the models, matter.

Thank you for reading folks! ~Josh

Significant rainfall building across Queensland. Over the next week and a half, recurring afternoon showers and thunders...
07/10/2026

Significant rainfall building across Queensland.

Over the next week and a half, recurring afternoon showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, again Saturday and Sunday, and then from Tuesday onwards are likely to bring widespread rainfall across southeastern, southern, central and western Queensland and northern New South Wales. Many areas could receive 30-60mm, with repeated stronger thunderstorms next week potentially producing isolated totals approaching 80mm.

This is thanks to a big influx of moisture streaming in from the north and northwest, as well as onshore from the Coral Sea, and the expected increase in temperatures usually seen at this time of year helping to destabilize the atmosphere and prime it for thunderstorm activity. A series of surface troughs will then likely work to trigger rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity, the activity expected to be responsible for delivering this widespread rain (as well as pockets of damaging wind gusts, hail and flash flooding).

At least for the next few days, the risk of severe thunderstorms remains low, however as instability really builds later this weekend and especially next week, the first proper severe storm risk for Queensland could develop (for reference, I wouldn't and didn't consider yesterdays set up a real 'severe storm day').

As with all rain forecasts where precipitation is consequential of thunderstorms, there will be winners and losers. Some places will pick up more than others, and there will be some unlucky spots that remain much drier than others. Right now, areas further north in QLD, south and west in NSW, and closer to the coast in both states appear to be drier than areas further inland.

Simply put, this is excellent news for areas currently impacted by drought, and whilst this won't lift most areas out of said drought, its a great start and will go a long way towards topping up tanks, dams and rivers.

Fingers crossed your area sees some much needed rainfall! ~Josh

Thunderstorm risk around Brisbane & SE QLD today. Today, a widespread outbreak of thunderstorms is expected across South...
05/10/2026

Thunderstorm risk around Brisbane & SE QLD today.

Today, a widespread outbreak of thunderstorms is expected across Southeast and Central Queensland, extending into Northeast NSW. Storm activity will develop across inland SE QLD during the morning before expanding through a broader area during the afternoon and evening, including Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.

Brisbane remains a bit of a wildcard later, dependent on the process of a developing MCS system advancing out of the Southern Downs, with the greatest chance of activity generally northwest of the city towards Wivenhoe, the Central Coalfields/Highlands and Warrego regions. Around Brisbane, the main window for storm activity is likely to be from early afternoon through the evening, with some storms potentially moving through the western suburbs and southern parts of the city.

The environment is becoming increasingly supportive of a few stronger storms, with around 20-30kts of shear, ML-CAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and lapse rates near 6.5℃/km. This could support locally damaging wind gusts and large hail, particularly across the Gold Coast, northern NSW and potentially southern Brisbane, within the early arvo MCS system expected to make passage over the region.

Further inland, multiple rounds of slower-moving, lightning-active thunderstorms are expected across the Central Coalfields/Highlands, Warrego/Maranoa, interior Burnett and southern Capricornia. Despite the widespread storm coverage, rainfall totals are likely to remain modest, so those hoping for significant falls to fill tanks and dams may have to wait a little longer.

This is likely to be the first widespread storm activity of the 2026/27 spring/summer season for many areas, but the risk of high-end severe impacts remains isolated. Brisbane could see some good storm activity tomorrow, but some areas, particularly closer to the coast, could still miss out entirely. I'll have further updates throughout the day. ~Josh

Storm potential increasing over Brisbane tomorrow. It’s now looking increasingly likely that a storm system will move in...
05/10/2026

Storm potential increasing over Brisbane tomorrow.

It’s now looking increasingly likely that a storm system will move into the Brisbane region early tomorrow afternoon, with the main window for activity between 1pm and 5pm. The system could bring strong wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall and a chance of hail.

An environment supportive of multiple storm cells developing inland from around midday should establish, with instability reaching 1000–1500 J/kg and lapse rates around 6.5℃/km. Most storms embedded within the MCS (mesoscale convective system) appear to remain non-severe, however a few cells could produce brief damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall in microbursts, along with large hail.

Brisbane’s western suburbs have the greatest chance of storm activity tomorrow afternoon, with places like Ipswich and Gatton potentially seeing 5-10mm of much-needed rainfall. Areas closer to the coast remain a chance, but are a little less likely to see storms.

Further inland, widespread pulse thunderstorm activity is expected across the Central Coalfields/Highlands, Warrego/Maranoa, interior Burnett and southern Capricornia. Multiple rounds of mostly non-severe, slower-moving and lightning-active storms are expected across these areas.

So whilst it is not set in stone for Brisbane tomorrow, the latest high resolution modeling from the ACCESS-C (pictured) gives the city a real chance at seeing some much anticipated storm activity, kicking off season 2026/2027. I'll have further updates throughout the day today ~Josh.

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