Real Liberals in Elgin

Cooling down a little. This is before the announcement of a technical recession. Carney continues to be popular. Poilievre continues to drag down his party.

Stephen Guilbeault announces his resignation from the Liberal Party of Canada caucus in order to continue the fight on climate change that has shaped most of his life. He doesn't feel the LPC considers climate change a priority anymore, but it still is for him. Guilbeault has been a polarizing figure while in government but good for him for standing up for his principles. While he isn't popular with many, it is nice to see a politician that actually has standards he is willing to fight for. We don't see that often. We wish him good luck to fight the good fight on climate change. We do still only have one planet to live on.

His riding of Laurier-Sainte-Marie on the island of Montreal is a densely populated urban riding. It has been Bloc, NDP and Liberal in the past. The Liberal Party of Canada will find a well-known candidate to replace him, pump a lot of your donation money into the riding for the by-election, and is likely to keep the riding. It shows that no one is irreplaceable.

If you ate today, thank a farmer. That's more than just a slogan. Much of what we eat and drink is grown on Canadian farms with Canadian rules for health and welfare for both humans and animals. Our milk is superior to milk from other countries in many ways. We can't lose that to appease others. Our supply chain is safe and valuable. Support your Canadian dairy, beef, chicken, pork, and crop farmers. We can't make it without them.

The Canadian Way | Canadian Goodness Behind the Blue Cow logo are Canadian dairy farmers who follow some of the highest standards in the world.

FYI on the fundraising from 2025. After the election, the Liberals are keeping pace with the Conservatives. Good news. Liberals are usually outpaced.

The Carney wave continues despite the PM's drop in approval to below 60%. Such a reversal for Poilievre-after he cornered Trudeau into a hated position- to now be the one who is dragging his party down. When are the Conservatives going to admit they have to replace him?

Eric Grenier's The Writ from May 12, 2026

8.1 million Conservative voters? Not anymore
Federal Projection Update for May 12, 2026.
ÉRIC GRENIER

Speaking to the Canada Strong and Free Network conference last week, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre dismissed calls that he needs to change, saying that his critics want him to “just join the club, accept the status quo, blend in” but that doing so would mean “leaving behind the 8.3 million [sic] Canadians, the record-smashing 8.3 million Canadians who voted for us. They voted for us to fight for them.”
Poilievre often references the number of votes his party received in the last election as a proof-point of the strength of his leadership and the importance of his Conservative opposition.
With the caveat that the Conservatives did not, in fact, receive 8.3 millions votes in the last election (they received 8,113,484, which would normally be rounded off to 8.1 million, or maybe 8.2 million if one is being very generous, but not 8.3 million, a mistake that Poilievre has made before) Poilievre is not wrong that his opposition mandate comes from the millions of Canadians who voted for him in 2025.
But the rhetorical strength of that mandate is somewhat diminished when, today, the Conservatives no longer seem to have the support of 8.1 million Canadians (or, for that matter, 8.3 million).
According to The Writ’s latest update to the Vote and Seat Projection, the Conservatives currently sit at 34% support, a drop of 7.3 percentage points since the last election. That would suggest that, if an election were held today and if turnout was a constant, the Conservatives would receive roughly 6.7 million votes, a drop of just over 1.4 million in little more than a year.
There’s been little change since last week, with the Liberals up marginally to 46.3% and leading in 224 ridings. The projection awards them 215.5 seats on average (which takes into account potential polling and modelling errors), an increase of 4.1 seats since last week. The average Conservative seat haul has dropped 3.6 seats to 99.8. The New Democrats have ticked up a small amount to 9.1% of the vote and win an average of 8.3 seats, while the Bloc is largely unchanged.

Good choice.

Louise Arbour has been named the new Governor General of Canada.
She is the sixth woman to serve as Governor General, and the sixth Governor General born in Quebec.
Arbour is also the first former Supreme Court Justice to serve as Governor General.

📸 Sean Kilpatrick

We're stepping away from a Liberal position today to remind everyone in Ontario that nominations for Municipal elections open today.

CANDIDATE NOMINATIONS OPEN FOR 2026 ONTARIO MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
The nomination period for mayoral, council and school trustee candidates for this fall’s Ontario municipal elections opens today.
Candidates have until Aug. 21 to file nomination papers with their municipal clerk.
To run for a position, candidates must fill out a form, pay a nomination fee and provide a list of at least 25 endorsement signatures, with some exceptions.
Individuals, corporations and trade unions can also register to be third-party advertisers starting today, with a deadline of Oct. 23.
Eligible Ontarians can vote in a municipality if they live there, own or rent property there or if they are the spouse of someone who owns or rents property in the municipality other than the one where they live.
Elections will take place Oct. 26.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 1, 2026.

Mark Carney 34K likes, 6.6K comments. "Forward Guidance with Prime Minister Mark Carney"

The devil is in the details. The words are well crafted. We look forward to the breakdown. Canada is the best country in the world, but the world is a tough place now. We care that the government looks out for us.

Today's Spring Economic Update lays out the next step in our plan to make life more affordable, create opportunities for young Canadians, invest in our future, and build an economy that works for everyone.