28/10/2026
The OBR just dropped 200 pages on Healey's first Budget.
Tax is at a record 37.9% of GDP by 2027-28, past the old high of 37.2%.
Then it climbs every single year to 38.6%.
Frozen thresholds are doing way too much to workers since they get a pay rise, hand more of it over.
1.8x the national minimum wage now classes you as a higher tax rate payer.
Borrowing at £133bn this year. In March they said £115bn. Seven months later it's £18bn worse. And it's higher than March in every year of the forecast because neither the OBR nor treasury has a clue what they’re doing.
Debt interest at £39bn in 2019-20.
£109bn last year.
£160bn by 2031-32. £15bn of this year's bill is extra because inflation's pushing up index linked gilts, and we know the UK has a structural inflation problem, partly due to the relationship between treasury and BoE.
Headroom is £14.5bn, down from £21.7bn at the last Budget.
Keep the fuel duty freeze going and it's £10.2bn.
The OBR gives Healey a 56% chance of hitting his rule??
Debt will peak at 97.3% of GDP, still 95.6% in 2031-32. Five years and it barely moves which is completely against his fiscal demands.
How it affects you?
Growth 1% next year with gdp per capita basically the same as it has been since 2019.
Inflation 3.4% when March said 2%.
Zero real pay growth in 2027.
Living standards in 2030-31?
Just 2% above pre-pandemic.
But don't worry. You're getting a £100 council tax rebate.