15/08/2026
Opinion
Why President Bola Ahmed Tinubu should be re-elected for a second term (Part 1)
Dele Omosehin
The decision Nigerians make at the next presidential election should ultimately be about the direction the country is headed.
Elections are not merely referenda on present circumstances; they are also judgments on whether a government’s policies are laying the foundations for a better future.
If we go by the preceding paragraph, it is safe to say that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu deserves a second term. And that second term, we shall mobilise for him to get it.
Speaking about the economy, it is on record that the Tinubu administration inherited an economy burdened by structural distortions, a costly fuel subsidy regime, an inefficient foreign-exchange system, weak fiscal buffers and declining investor confidence.
Rather than postpone difficult decisions, as some of his predecessors did, President Tinubu chose a different route: he elected to confront some of the country's most entrenched economic problems. The consequences were painful, particularly for households, but the evidence increasingly suggests that the reforms are producing important macroeconomic gains.
The strongest argument for continuity is therefore simple: Nigeria should not abandon reforms that are beginning to restore economic stability before their full benefits can be realised.
The removal of the petrol subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign-exchange market were among the most consequential decisions of the Tinubu presidency. On these two scores, credible institutions and those with insider and expert knowledge of how the fundamentals of a nation’s economy work have commended the President for a job well done.
For years, Nigeria spent enormous resources subsidising petrol, while the benefits of the system were increasingly distorted by smuggling, arbitrage and inefficiency. At the same time, multiple exchange rates created opportunities for rent-seeking and currency round-tripping, discouraged investment, and made it difficult to determine the true value of the naira. The Tinubu administration dismantled both arrangements.
The Naira was allowed to trade more freely, while the fuel subsidy was removed. These measures, it must be acknowledged, inevitably produced a sharp initial shock. Inflation accelerated, transport and food costs rose, and the naira depreciated substantially. It would therefore be dishonest to pretend that Nigerians have not paid a heavy price for the adjustment.
But economic reform should be judged not only by its immediate discomfort but also by whether it corrects the underlying problem in the long run. There is now substantial independent evidence that Nigeria's macroeconomic position has improved. The International Monetary Fund said in June 2026 that reforms undertaken over the previous three years had "strengthened macroeconomic stability and built resilience." It specifically credited the ending of fuel subsidies and deficit monetisation, tighter monetary policy and exchange-rate liberalisation with reducing fiscal vulnerabilities, rebuilding external buffers and improving the functioning of the foreign-exchange market.
The figures are significant. According to the IMF, Nigeria's gross international reserves rose from about $40 billion at the end of 2024 to $46 billion at the end of 2025, while net international reserves increased from $23 billion to $35 billion. Gross reserves had reached about $49 billion on a 30-day moving average by the end of March 2026.
This is not a trivial achievement. Foreign reserves provide a country's first line of defence against external shocks. Stronger reserves improve the capacity to meet external obligations, support confidence in the currency and give monetary authorities greater room to manage volatility.
The foreign-exchange market has also become more functional. The IMF notes that inflation became less entrenched and more responsive to monetary policy following the unification of the exchange-rate system. The naira even appreciated by 10 per cent year-on-year against the US dollar in March 2026.
Growth is another encouraging indicator. The IMF estimated that Nigeria's economy grew by 4 per cent in 2025 and projected 4.1 per cent growth for 2026.
There are also signs of a changing structure in the energy sector. The Dangote refinery has reduced Nigeria's dependence on imported refined petroleum products, while the IMF reported that increased domestic refining is contributing to the country's current-account surplus.
The government's latest efforts to attract investment into deep-water oil and gas projects reinforce the broader reform agenda. In August 2026, Tinubu approved a new fiscal and regulatory framework intended to unlock potentially $50 billion in offshore oil and gas investment.
The above gains in the economy notwithstanding, as a businessman, none of this means the economic battle has been won, far from it. We still have a long way to go, but with a steady foot on the pedal for stability and sustainable growth.
Inflation, poverty, food insecurity and the high cost of living remain serious problems. The IMF estimated that 63 per cent of Nigerians were living in poverty and that 27 million people experienced food insecurity in late 2025.
But this is precisely why continuity matters. The answer to painful reform is not necessarily to return to the policies that created the distortions in the first place, as some opposition presidential candidates have been mouthing. That will be akin to returning Nigeria to Egypt!
The more rational response is to consolidate the gains, deepen reforms, expand social protection and ensure that macroeconomic stability translates into rising real incomes and better living standards.
It is my firm belief that a second term would allow President Tinubu to move from stabilisation to economic prosperity, which is the desire of every Nigerian, regardless of their political leanings.
Why continuity matters
Tinubu's strongest case for a second term is therefore not that Nigeria has suddenly become a prosperous or completely secure country. It has not.
His case is that the country is moving in the right direction and needs the opportunity to complete the journey. Even the DG of the World Trade Organisation, Dr (Mrs) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has attested to the stability of the Nigerian economy's macroeconomic fundamentals under the leadership of President Tinubu.
The IMF has also independently confirmed that the reforms have strengthened macroeconomic stability and resilience. Foreign reserves have risen. The foreign-exchange market functions more transparently. Economic growth has strengthened. Domestic refining is reducing dependence on imported petroleum products.
And the government is expanding the capacity of the security forces while demonstrating an ability to execute major hostage-rescue operations. All these have created an enabling environment for domestic and foreign investments in the country.
The sacrifices Nigerians have made, therefore, demand results, not reversal.
A second Tinubu term should be judged by a clear bargain with the Nigerian people: preserve macroeconomic discipline, accelerate investment and job creation, reduce inflation, expand targeted support for the vulnerable, strengthen institutions, and intensify the war against banditry, kidnapping and terrorism.
The first term has been about making difficult structural corrections. The second should be about converting those corrections into broad-based prosperity and lasting security.
Nigeria cannot afford to keep restarting its economic journey every four years. The country needs consistency, policy credibility and sustained ex*****on.
For a nation that has spent decades postponing difficult decisions, the wisest course may be to allow the current reforms to mature, correct their shortcomings and deliver their promised dividends.
President Tinubu should, therefore, be re-elected, not because the work is finished, but because the work has only just begun.
Chief Omosehin is an APC chieftain and an international businessman.
