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Agricomp Commodities

Agricomp Commodities

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Empresa paraguaya pionera en corretaje de mercaderías físicas y gestión de riesgo.

05/02/2018

The Dow is down triple-digits in the overnight session and looks as if it will post another day of extreme volatility. Many larger money-managers say it isn't just about rates moving higher, but also the fact wages might be aggressively increasing, meaning cost-of-goods sold will be moving higher and earnings margins might start getting squeezed in the months ahead. Keep in mind however, we are coming off a year in 2017, where the Dow added +25.1%, having hit 71 closing records. The S&P500 gained +19.4%, and the Nasdaq rose a massive +28.2%. If you are looking for a -10% correction, the Dow would need to tumble to around 23,800, essentially another -1,700 points. Still that only takes us back to levels we were trading at in late-November and early-December. Bank of America pointed out that stock funds completed another “massive” week of inflows. Their data showed investors poured $25.7 billion into equities in the week to January 31, taking the total inflow for the year to a "remarkable" $102 billion. At the same time there's talk that so called "smart-money" is rotating out of stocks and into bonds as more signs of rising inflation start to appear. The 10-year Treasury is now at its highest level in over four years. Many insiders are thinking the recent tax reform measures will force the Treasury to borrow more money, which ultimately puts more bonds into play. If we see a supply glut it could obviously devalue bonds, meaning buyers will want a higher yield to make it worth their investment. This aggressive movement and rotation of funds across asset classes is causing larger waves than we've seen in many months, hence the increased VIX and volatility readings. Many insiders say its the continued strength in employment stoking some of the recent fears. The employment report on Friday showed a higher-than-expected +200,000 jobs were added in January. And growth in wages surged to +2.9% over last year - the strongest since 2009. The only economic data due out today is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Earnings continue this week with today’s highlights including Bristol-Myers, Potash Corp., Ryanair, Sysco and Toyota. For what its worth over 80% of the S&P500 company's have beat their EPS estimates, the highest in 7 years. Oil prices have come under a little more pressure after Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. oil rigs climbed for a second week in a row. This came on top of news earlier last week that showed an increase in U.S. stockpiles and the highest production levels in forty years. Investors are also anxious this week about government funding that is set to run out on Thursday at midnight. Insiders believe Congress will most likely pass another stopgap bill. Rumor has it that it would run through March 23, giving lawmakers plenty of time to craft a long-term funding bill that would run through September. Keep in mind the Winter Olympics begin in South Korea this week which could generate some interesting geopolitical headlines as North Korea is sending a delegation. It’s also possible some Russian athletes that had previously been banned due to a doping scandal will be in attendance. The Court of Arbitration for Sport overturned the ban on 28 Russians last week, which means they could seek late entry to this year’s games. Lots of interesting headlines this week that could further stoke the flames of volatility. It feels like the ride is clearly going to get rougher... I still remain a longer-term bull. Just remember, when the noise starts to get louder, it's imperative that you have a plan, execute and keep your emotions in check.

01/02/2018

Weather problems in Argentina should push lower their grain crops, lower US dollar, lower rates, potential funds short covering and potential lower planting in Brazil safrinha and U.S.
Corn FOB values lost abt 20usd/mt in the last 5 years while exports and ethanol consuption are running at a great pace.
Seems like we have a bottoming mkt and I would like to say that corn should be a winner asset for 2018.

22/01/2018

Monday 💪💪

09/01/2018

Brazilian Corn Production yet to be Determined

There continue to be concerns expressed about the Brazilian corn crop. A survey of Brazilian analysts conducted by Reuters indicated that the full-season corn acreage declined 11% and the production is expected to decline 17% compared to last year. The full-season corn crop will account for about 30% of Brazil's total corn production.

Approximately 70% of Brazil's corn production will come from the safrinha crop and there are a lot of concerns about that crop. A delay in the soybean planting and thus the soybean harvest, will push back the safrinha corn plating past the ideal planting window. I am estimating that 30-40% of the potential safrinha corn acreage will not be able to be planted before the ideal window closes.

With low domestic corn prices, there is a risk that some of these late fields may not get planted at all. Advisory firms are telling their clients that the only way they can make money on safrinha corn production is to achieve above trend line corn yields. If the safrinha corn planting is significantly delayed, the chances of achieving above trend line yields is essentially zero. Brazilian farmers may have to reevaluate their safrinha corn acreage intensions if the planting is significantly delayed as expected.

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