Citizens Assembly

Inquiry:
how close is California to voting for calexit?

Short response:

California isn't close to voting for Calexit; it's a long-shot initiative that requires over half a million voter signatures by mid-2025 for a potential 2028 ballot, facing massive hurdles, and currently lacks widespread political backing, focusing more on expressing discontent than immediate secession.
Key Hurdles & Status:
Signature Gathering: A measure to put a secession vote on the ballot needs 546,651 registered voters' signatures by July 2025 to qualify.
Future Vote: Even if it gets on the ballot (perhaps 2028), it would be a "vote of no confidence," not immediate exit, signaling deep frustration with federal government.
Lack of Momentum: While proponents exist (like Marcus Evans), Calexit lacks broad public or political support to become a serious legislative push, acting more as a protest vote.
In Summary: It's currently very far from happening, requiring significant grassroots effort just to get a symbolic vote on a future ballot, let alone achieve actual separation.

Inquiry: what event is necessary for the blue states to secede?

Short Response:

There's no specific event that makes secession by "blue states" or any states possible, as the U.S. Constitution doesn't provide a legal path for it, and the Supreme Court ruled it impossible except by revolution or mutual consent. Historically, secession followed a breakdown of political compromise (like over slavery), intense regional identity, and perceived existential threats, culminating in a declaration of independence and often war, as seen with Southern states in 1860-61. For any modern secession to occur, it would likely require a major constitutional crisis, extreme political polarization, or a fundamental shift in federal authority, potentially leading to a revolution or constitutional amendment, though neither seems imminent.
Historical Context (Why States Seceded Before):
Constitutional Interpretation: Southern states viewed the Union as a voluntary compact, while Northerners came to see it as perpetual.
Political Breakdown: The election of Abraham Lincoln and the rise of anti-slavery sentiment led Southern states to believe their way of life (slavery) was under existential threat, prompting secession.
State Conventions: States called conventions, debated, and voted to leave the Union, citing federal overreach and violations of states' rights as justifications.
Modern Barriers to Secession:
Supreme Court Ruling: Texas v. White (1869) declared states can't unilaterally secede.
No Constitutional Mechanism: The Constitution only allows amendment (a very high bar) or revolution.
Lack of Public Will: While some secessionist sentiment exists in some "blue" states (like California's "Calexit"), surveys show most citizens oppose leaving the Union.
Potential (Hypothetical) Triggers for Future Secession Movements:
Severe Political Polarization: Unresolvable ideological divides, similar to the slavery era, where one side feels fundamentally unrepresented or threatened.
Constitutional Crisis: A federal government action seen as tyrannical or a complete disregard for a state's core interests, mirroring Southern justifications in 1860.
Economic or Social Rupture: A breakdown in shared national identity or extreme economic disparity between regions.
In essence, a secession event would require a massive, sustained crisis and a widespread belief among a significant bloc of states that their fundamental interests cannot be served within the current Union, overriding constitutional limits and potentially leading to conflict.

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Ppl wonder why don't have nice things.