Montfort Political Consulting

Beto O'Rourke's appeal is widespread. He received
more than 500K donations totaling $27M+ from all over the country and all over Texas ($14.5M).
Let's bring this election home to Democrats here in Texas.

A reminder early voting starts tomorrow through Friday for the primary runoffs. Several candidates are on the ballot.

In this TX Senate map, I have added the youth % and the minority %. These are the fastest-growing areas with the most minorities in Texas. This map makes the GOP nervous. Some of those districts that vote GOP are trending bluer such as , .

Here is the Texas Senate youth % vs. senior % map. The more children there are under 18 vs 65+ seniors, the greener. The rural areas tend to have a lower percentage of children compared to urban areas experiencing growth.

Here is a minority map of TX Senate districts. The more diverse the district (redder), the more likely it is to vote Democratic. The less diverse (whiter) the district is, the more likely it votes GOP. These whiter districts are also more rural.

Since the TX Senate just voted to pass the oppressive voting bill, I thought I would run some data on the senate districts. Here is a party control map to reference all 31 senate districts in our state (18 R to 13D). You will notice the break is mostly rural vs urban. But the RGV is also Democratic.

Firing up the map maker and focusing on Texas house districts this week since the legislature is wrapping up. These are the races that are within 5 pts of flipping either way. While I expect redistricting to throw a wrench in this, it is debatable if the maps will change in time for the elections next year due to expected lawsuits. and census delays Red is GOP held and blue is Democrat held. The closer to white, the hotter the race.

DFW has 3 races that are going to be very tight if they are not redistricted, 66,108,112, all of which are GOP held. Houston has 1 in 135 held by a Democrat.

I'm firing up the ole map machine in the corner. These are for Plano City Council races. The mayor's race is interesting because Lily Bao ran on a platform of Trump. A PAC supporting her sent out a text that opened with, " Make Plano Great Again." I have no idea what that even means, but voters rejected it handily. Democrats performed markedly better in these races coming in around 47% as the city continues to diversify. Holmer is in a runoff. Each Color shade is for the candidate. The darker the color, the more that precinct went for them. White is even split.

I've been a little quiet on this page. Busy with local elections. Lots of interesting things going on. Local elections are continuing to become more and more partisan. I personally think people should go ahead and run as a party. Candidates are being outed anyway, so the whole idea that these races are non-partisan is a charade. Here are a couple of great examples of what is going on around DFW. These are in Highland Park and Southlake.

The Texas Democratic Party has a postmortem election investigation about why Democrats in Texas didn't do better. Apparently, not canvassing costs us votes. I was ringing the alarm about this for months before the election that we needed to get out there and knock on doors. I even ran 2 polls to see how people would feel about someone knocking on their door. In both, 70% of people were okay with it. Beto was the only person to try to do something and that was too little too late.

I was also repeatedly told by candidates that they were not permitted to canvass. So candidates lit dropped instead, which is marginally effective. On the other side, The Texas GOP downplayed the pandemic, which allowed them to canvass and get their side to vote. It worked well. Now Democrats face an uphill battle for another decade of Gerrymeandered districts as we struggle to keep the foothold we gained. I hope lessons have been learned from this.

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Texas Democrats Unveil 2020 Post-Election Data Analysis Austin, Texas — Today, the Texas Democratic Party unveiled our 2020 post-election data analysis delving into what happened in the 2020 election: the trends, numbers, and data behind the results in Texas. Additionally, we’re sharing preliminary analysis on how Texas Democrats can continue our asc...

In a case of who done it, I'm going with Cancun Ted and he used the wrench.

City council elections are in full swing starting today. Dallas has 50 people vying for 14 offices. Elections are in early May.