North Valley Review

A Lot of Ballots Left to Be Counted, But Most Outcomes Already Seem Obvious

There are still a lot of ballots left to be counted, but most of the major outcomes are already becoming clear. Overall, incumbents performed well across the board.

Paul Canepa and Steve Ding both won re election. Congratulations to them. Steve Bestolarides also secured another term as Assessor.

Harder vs. McBride and Tom Patti vs. Rhodesia Ransom. No surprise.

One of the more surprising results of the night was Matthew Adams finishing in second place in the 09 Assembly race. It appears Republicans may have split the vote too much, with Jim Shoemaker and Brandon Owens unable to surpass incumbent Heath Flora. Adams will now face Flora in a district that heavily favors Republicans. However, Flora continues to carry significant political baggage, which could make the race more competitive than expected.

Speaking of incumbents with baggage, it appears State Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil will not advance to the general election. Instead, Democrat Brandon Jaron will face Alexandra Duarte. Once again, this is a heavily Republican district, but Duarte is not considered a particularly strong candidate and occupies a position on the far right of California politics. Michael Masuda also appears well positioned to face Tom McClintock in the general election. That race will be an uphill battle given the district's voter registration and McClintock's ability to raise millions of dollars.

Few people were surprised that Kevin Lincoln advanced and will face Adam Gray in the new 13th congressional district that includes parts of Stockton. Lincoln closely aligned himself with Donald Trump, who remains unpopular in much of the area, while Democrats are expected to perform well in the midterm elections. Even so, it is likely to be a hard fought race. Both Kevin Lincoln and Michael Tubbs ran advertisements highlighting their time as mayor, but Tubbs failed to advance in the Lieutenant Governor's race.

Michael Blower appears headed for a matchup against Jessica Toccoli. For a candidate who did not attend forums and rarely engaged with the press, Toccoli performed surprisingly well. It may simply reflect how little attention many voters paid to local races this election.

Brando Villapudua and Michelle Padilla likely surprised some observers with their first place finishes. However, we pointed out in an article over the weekend that Stockton incumbents almost always survive the primary. It would have been historic if an incumbent City Council member had failed to advance.

Desiree Lynch is expected to face Brando Villapudua in what could become a very contentious race. Jason Lee has made it clear that he wants Villapudua out of office and appears willing to spend significant money toward that goal.

Whether Michelle Padilla has won outright with more than 50 percent plus one vote remains far from settled. There are still many ballots left to count, and her current lead is razor thin. The Registrar of Voters is still determining how many ballots remain outstanding, including ballots still arriving through the mail.

At the moment, county officials are reporting approximately 18 percent voter turnout, while the state is reporting closer to 25 percent. Turnout in Stockton will almost certainly climb higher, likely exceeding 30 percent. That means there are still enough ballots remaining to potentially change the outcome in District 1.

Looking at the trends, however, the other council races appear largely settled.

Mayor Christina Fugazi said she was staying out of the primaries. In a conversation with the North Valley Review, she appeared confident about Michelle Padilla's chances but did not discuss the other races. Given her long running disputes with Jason Lee, it seems clear she would prefer that Michael Blower and Desiree Lynch not prevail. The question remains whether she would openly support Jessica Toccoli and Brando Villapudua in the general election.

Another notable development was the apparent lack of influence from 209 Times in local elections. For months, the site regularly published attacks targeting Michael Blower and Brando Villapudua. Voters appear to have largely ignored the political content and continued visiting the site primarily for local crime and traffic coverage.

Despite the steady stream of criticism aimed at Blower and Villapudua, both candidates finished in first place. Based on these results, the political attacks appear to have had little measurable impact on voter behavior.

Eve of election only 14.8% of ballots returned in Stockton

The all-time low for voter turnout in SJ County was the 2014 Gubentorial Primary Election. Less than 25% of registered voters participated.

There wasn't really a primary at all because there wasn't a prominent challenger against Governor Jerry Brown at the time.

Tens of Thousands in Last Minute Campaign Contributions Flow Into Stockton Races to Protect Incumbents

If you look at the campaign finance activity during the final week before the election, much of it appears focused on protecting incumbents Michael Blower and Michelle Padilla. That does not mean money is not being spent on other races, but Blower in particular has consistently filed his campaign paperwork properly and on time, making his financial activity easier to track. Padilla, meanwhile, still faces significant questions regarding the reporting of her campaign finances.

The reason it is publicly known that money is being spent to support Padilla is because the spending is occurring outside of her campaign. The Stockton Firefighters Union political action committee recently spent $2,500 in support of Padilla's reelection effort. None of the other candidates in the District 1 race have received any major recent contributions. The last notable donation was a maximum contribution to Tamica Small from actress Tiffany Haddish.

Blower is receiving support through several channels. He is also backed by the firefighters union, and an independent expenditure committee called Stockton Committee for Responsible Government has been sending mailers attacking his opponent, Jessica Toccoli. In addition, Blower's campaign has received several large direct contributions.

In District 5, Councilmember Brando Villapudua is being promoted through endorsements circulating on social media by the North Valley Labor Association, alongside support for Padilla and Blower. However, Desiree Lynch continues to dominate social media advertising, with multiple ads still running heavily. At this point, it appears likely that all three incumbents will advance beyond the primary.

Blower is also running advertisements highlighting endorsements from the San Joaquin County Republican Party and Congressman Josh Harder, making him the candidate most likely to surpass the 50 percent plus one vote threshold on Tuesday.

One of the most significant factors in the election remains the extremely low voter turnout. The next few days provide candidates with a final opportunity to reach voters before ballots are cast. The concern, however, is that elections decided by very low turnout may not accurately reflect the broader electorate. In low turnout contests, participation is often dominated by the most politically extreme voters, which can sometimes produce unexpected results.

Who wants to go? Great job by Annie Barker of Stocktonia News covering this. This is not the typical article about local culture we have all grown accustomed to.

'It's a positive thing': Into the Hardcore scene of the Central Valley - Stocktonia News While the hardcore scene has existed long before 2020, musicians, bookers, and concertgoers showed up to keep the Stockton hardcore scene growing.

When you talk to Stockton residents about the changes they would like to see, one of the most common responses is that there is not enough for families to do.

The City of Stockton heard those concerns and put together a guide to all of its summer activities and programs.

Here is a link to the guide, which includes City sponsored events and activities throughout the summer.

It is also connected to public safety. Teenagers who are out of school and have little to do are more likely to get into trouble. Providing positive activities and opportunities helps keep young people engaged and gives families more ways to stay involved in the community.

Link in comments

Arron Judge Signing Autographs For Local Kids

The New York Yankees were in the area playing the Sacramento A's, and Linden native Aaron Judge stayed after the game to sign autographs for kids. The home run superstar grew up just 50 miles from the stadium and took the time to make some young fans' day.

(Photo and information from a tweet by Kevin John of ABC.)

Saturday Night Update: 15% Voter Turnout

Some tips if you're canvassing for GOTV this weekend.

Curb Your Enthusiasm: Canvassing From Season 11, Episode 7Irma KostroskiAired on HBO: 2021.12.05...