15/05/2026
This article is a clear explanation of the situation with the NDIS changes being implemented by the government.
NDIS “savings” versus NDIS cuts: the bit we need to separate...
A few people have asked a really important question about the Budget’s NDIS changes,
'How much of the $37.8 billion in claimed savings is actually fraud/rorts?' and 'How much is simply a reduction in supports, access, plans or services for people with genuine disability needs?'
That distinction matters enormously.
I think we can agree that most reasonable people think that if money is being stolen from the NDIS by organised crime, dodgy providers, fake claims, inflated billing, or services that were never delivered, that money should be recovered.
That is not a “cut” to people who need it but rather protecting the scheme.
But if savings come from tightening access, reducing plans, limiting reassessments, narrowing what counts as reasonable and necessary, cutting community participation, or pushing people out of the scheme and into underbuilt “foundational supports,” then we are in very different territory.
That is not just “savings" but rather a cut in practical terms, to people's lives.
And for many people, cuts to support mean cuts to independence, safety, therapy, education, work participation, community access, family stability and quality of life.
So let’s separate the pieces.
The Budget says the NDIS reform package is expected to save $37.8 billion over four years.
The government says the scheme will still grow each year and remain Australia’s largest social program outside the Age Pension. But the savings come from a broad reform package, not simply from catching crooks.
The Budget material says the government will slow cost increases by tightening criteria around plan reassessments, strengthening guidance on “reasonable and necessary” supports, resetting budgets for social and community participation and capacity-building daily activities, and introducing new planning arrangements from April 2027.
There is also an anti-fraud and integrity component. The government says it will increase oversight of providers and payments, strengthen NDIA investigative and enforcement powers, and introduce new regulatory controls to protect participants and the scheme from exploitation.
Good. That should happen. But here is the key number...
At a recent parliamentary inquiry, the NDIA’s integrity chief said around 8.3% of NDIS payments last financial year could be described as “integrity leakage.” On a roughly $45 billion payment base, that was about $3.7 billion. But importantly, that “integrity leakage” was broader than fraud. It included fraud, misuse, error and inadvertent non-compliance. The NDIA official also said there was no statistically valid way to measure how much of that leakage was fraud alone.
That is very important.
Because when someone yells “NDIS rorts!” as if the entire $37.8 billion is just money being rescued from criminals, they are not being accurate.
At best, based on current public figures, the known integrity leakage problem is around $3.7 billion a year... and even that is not all fraud.
Over four years, if you very roughly extrapolated that annual figure, you’d get about $14.8 billion in potential leakage. But even that is not the same as recoverable savings, because some leakage is error, some is non-compliance, some is misuse, some may be impossible to recover, and some would require new systems to prevent in future.
So no, we cannot honestly say the $37.8 billion is simply “rorts being removed.”
It is much larger than the publicly identified fraud/integrity leakage figure.
That means a substantial portion of the $37.8 billion is likely coming from changes to access, planning, plan size, support definitions, participant pathways and growth restraint.
In plain Gherkin... Fraud crackdown = genuine saving vs Reduced support for genuine participants = cut. The Budget contains both.
This is why language matters.
Calling all of it “savings” sanitises the human impact, of which I've been guilty myself in doing.
Calling all of it “cuts” ignores the genuine need to stop fraud and exploitation.
The honest position is more uncomfortable...
The NDIS does have a serious fraud and integrity problem.
The NDIS does need better controls.
Dodgy providers should be hunted out of the system with a flaming rake.
But people with genuine disability needs should not be used as the balancing item because governments failed to regulate the market properly in the first place.
And that is the fear.
People with disabilities are looking at these numbers and wondering how much of this “saving” is coming out of their therapy, their support worker hours, their transport, their communication supports, their community access, their capacity to work, study, parent, participate and live with dignity.
For some participants, the Budget may hit twice.
They may lose or have reduced supports through NDIS changes, while also missing out on much of the benefit of “working Australian” tax cuts because their disability limits their ability to work full-time, or to work at all.
That is not a small thing.
It's impossible to neatly say “this exact portion of the $37.8 billion funds tax cuts.” Budgets do not work like labelled jars in a pantry. Revenue and savings flow into the overall fiscal position.
But politically, it is fair to ask why large savings are being booked from disability supports while other parts of the population receive broader tax relief. That is a values question.
So here is the test I’d like the government to apply...
If the government saves money by stopping fraud, fake invoices, provider exploitation and organised crime, good.
If the government saves money by making the NDIS less chaotic, more consistent and more accountable, good.
If the government saves money by shifting people with lower support needs into genuinely funded, accessible, high-quality foundational supports, maybe... but only if those supports actually exist before people are pushed out.
But if the government saves money by making disabled people fight harder for support, reducing access to services, shrinking plans, or dumping people into state systems that are not ready, then call it what it is.
It isn't reform. It's a cut.
And disabled Australians deserve honesty about which is which.
28/05/2026
29/04/2026
05/02/2026
28/01/2026
13/01/2026
18/12/2025
26/11/2025
17/11/2025