EHS with Ibrahim, Bahuka, Sirajganj (2026)

27/12/2025

20/12/2025

Crowd Size Estimate

1. Location & Area Breakdown (Manik Mia Avenue Zone)

Key zones visible in the images:

✅Manik Mia Avenue (main road)
✅South & North lawns of the National Parliament
✅Front plaza / steps of Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban
✅Connecting side roads & green medians

Approximate dimensions (from Google Maps scale)
Area Segment Approx. Length Approx. Width Area (m²)
Manik Mia Avenue (core stretch) ~1.4 km ~90 m ~126,000
Parliament front plaza ~400 m ~250 m ~100,000
North lawn area — — ~140,000
South lawn area — — ~120,000
Side roads & medians — — ~40,000
Estimated Total Area ~526,000 m²

2. Crowd Density Assumptions (Standard Practice)

Widely accepted density benchmarks:

Density Type People per m² Situation
Loose crowd 1.0 Standing with space
Dense crowd 2.0 Shoulder-to-shoulder
Very dense (max safe) 3.0–4.0 Restricted movement

From your images:

Avenue & plaza: Very dense (2.5–3.0 /m²)
Lawns & outer zones: Dense (1.5–2.0 /m²)

3. Crowd Calculation
Conservative estimate

Average density ≈ 1.8 people/m²
526,000×1.8≈946,800
Moderate (most realistic)
Average density ≈ 2.2 people/m²
526,000×2.2≈1,157,000
Upper‐bound estimate
Average density ≈ 2.7 people/m²
526,000×2.7≈1,420,000

4. Final Estimated Range

Likely number of people gathered today:

≈ 1.0 million to 1.4 million people

Most defensible point estimate:

≈ 1.15–1.25 million people

5. Important Notes (Credibility Factors)

This estimate excludes people who:
Joined briefly and left. (turnover effect)
Were inside adjacent buildings or beyond camera coverage.
Funeral gatherings typically show high static density, increasing reliability.
Aerial images strongly indicate near-maximum capacity usage of the avenue + lawns

Courtesy: ChatGPT
Credit: BM Sabbir Hossain