23/10/2026
West Africa sets the tone: what happens in West Africa doesn’t stay in West Africa 🌍
❣️ As the world’s leading cocoa-producing region, West Africa has a major influence on the wider cocoa market, from supply and availability to prices and volatility. With the 2026/27 season underway, all eyes are on the crop: how is it developing, and how much cocoa will reach the market, and when?
🇨🇮🇬🇭🇳🇬🇨🇲 Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroun and the smaller West-African countries produce around 70 % of the world’s cocoa. When crops, weather or arrivals shift in the region, the whole market feels it. And while specialty cacao is less directly linked, the bigger picture still shapes the specialty market.
📈📉 A market in motion
Cocoa prices surged to unprecedented highs in late 2024, reaching up to US$12/kg, as supply tightened, weather disrupted production and stocks ran low. From early 2025, prices moved back down as supply prospects improved, inventories recovered and demand weakened. In March 2026, prices touched around US$3.50/kg. Since the summer, lower projected volumes, El Niño risks, vulnerable farms with low productivity and speculation have pushed bulk cocoa back up to around US$6/kg.
💶 🫘 Price ≠ availability
The price is one thing, the physical cocoa behind it another. How much cacao reaches the market, when, in what form and at what quality: that’s what matters to buyers. A lower price doesn’t automatically mean more cacao is available or that sourcing gets easier.
🔭 What to watch in the coming weeks
• Crop development, harvest timing and the pace of arrivals
• Updated production estimates for Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon, alongside Ghana’s weaker outlook
• Rainfall patterns and how El Niño develops
• Traceability ahead of EUDR: proving where cocoa was grown, also when it crosses borders
And West Africa isn’t one single market. Each origin has its own pricing system and its own way of bringing cocoa to market, from government-controlled to free-market systems.
🔉 Stay tuned for the next posts on field realty and what it measn for craft chocolatemakers.