UN Trade and Development

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have ripple effects for small island developing states.

UNCTAD estimates that a sustained 50% increase in refined oil prices could raise their annual net oil import bill by about $4 billion. In Vanuatu and the Maldives, the burden could exceed 5% of GDP.

Full analysis: https://ow.ly/3OXV50Z7BVT

The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments.

Disruptions there have pushed up oil prices. Least developed countries could face an additional $16 billion in oil import costs as a result, assuming import volumes remain at 2024 levels.

In Mauritania, The Gambia and Burkina Faso, the burden could exceed 5% of GDP.

UNCTAD analysis: https://ow.ly/ahEz50Z7vKJ

Vulnerable economies, home to nearly 1 billion people, are feeling the squeeze amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

New analysis from UNCTAD shows how oil price spikes raise import costs, fuel inflation and strain already stretched public finances.

It focuses on least developed countries and small island developing states – economies that are often highly dependent on imported fuel and have limited capacity to absorb external shocks.

More: https://ow.ly/wScu50Z73Rk

New UNCTAD monitor warns vulnerable economies face the heaviest burden from oil shocks Rising oil prices triggered by disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz are placing growing pressure on the world's most vulnerable economies, UNCTAD warns in a new report.

Oil prices have surged since 28 February, driving up costs across transport, supply chains and energy markets worldwide.

What are the implications for least developed countries and small island developing states – home to nearly 1 billion people?

Explore UNCTAD's latest analysis, "Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: The burden of oil price shocks on vulnerable economies”: https://ow.ly/CGf150Z6Hwb

Amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising energy prices are putting vulnerable economies at risk.

65 of 75 least developed countries and small island developing states rely on imported oil.

Without targeted support, the situation could deepen existing vulnerabilities and affect nearly 1 billion people.

Swipe through to explore the data and key considerations: https://ow.ly/SELF50Z6ztk

From 4.7% growth in 2025 to 1.5–2.5% in 2026: Global merchandise trade is projected to slow as geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, energy markets and key shipping routes, including through the Strait of Hormuz.

More in the latest Trade and Development Foresights: https://ow.ly/ilBJ50Z65w3

One quarter of global trade is services, yet the gains are uneven.

Advanced economies lead in digitally deliverable services exports, while many least developed countries remain marginal players.

Explore policy solutions to narrow the gap: https://ow.ly/mZmm50Z5Har

Back in Geneva, Acting Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno highlighted how services trade advances global development cooperation.

From logistics and finance to digital platforms, services boost competitiveness and help developing economies move up value chains for more inclusive growth.

Explore our work on services, trade and development: https://ow.ly/b9ZP50Z5BGJ

Fragmentation, concentration and new integration are reshaping the global economy, making cooperation even more vital on digital systems, critical minerals and clean energy supply chains.

More from Acting Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno at the 32nd APEC - Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation trade ministers’ meeting:

UN Trade and Development chief calls for cooperation amid 'cross-currents' reshaping global economy Speaking at the 32nd APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade Meeting held from 22 to 23 May in Suzhou, Jiangsu province, People’s Republic of China, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Acting Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno calle