Institute of Foreign Affairs -IFA

06/10/2026

Ethiopia’s new five-year mandate sets out priorities for political stability, economic transformation, digital modernization, strategic autonomy, and regional stability.

Read the full IFA Policy Brief: https://ifa.gov.et/blog/769

1. Executive SummaryOn 05 October 2026, the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, made his formal inaugural speech since swearing him into a new five-year term o

06/10/2026

H.E Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reaffirmed that ’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea is rooted in the country’s enduring national interests and long-term development aspirations. He emphasized that Ethiopia’s neighbors are natural partners and that relations should be guided by cooperation, reciprocity, and mutual benefit. For a country with Ethiopia’s ancient civilization, large population, and growing economic potential, reliable access to the sea remains a strategic national imperative.

The Prime Minister stressed that Ethiopia will continue working persistently toward this objective through peaceful dialogue, negotiation, and the principle of give and take. Ethiopia’s approach seeks practical and mutually beneficial arrangements that advance its legitimate interests while respecting those of its neighbors, positioning access to the Red Sea as central to the country’s development, economic competitiveness, and long-term prosperity.

05/10/2026

Ethiopia’s Medemer Government takes shape today, October 5, 2026.

In his inaugural remarks, H.E. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reflected on Ethiopia’s recent election, describing it as a democratic process tested and refined through challenges. He emphasized that while political contests produce winners and losers, “Ethiopia has no losing children—only winners.”

H.E called for Ethiopians to move forward together, stressing unity, vigilance and a clear national purpose amid a rapidly changing global environment.

“What is best for the nation” remains the responsibility of this generation.

05/10/2026

PRESS STATEMENT | Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia

Ethiopia reaffirms the geographic and historical realities underpinning its legitimate interests in the Abay (Blue Nile) and the Red Sea. These enduring realities remain central to discussions concerning regional water utilization, maritime affairs, and security.

Ethiopia remains committed to peaceful engagement, mutual respect, regional cooperation, and good neighborliness, while firmly safeguarding its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and core national interests.

The Ministry calls for shared regional challenges to be addressed through constructive dialogue, partnership, and cooperation rather than confrontation and zero-sum approaches.

Read the full Press Statement attached below.

05/10/2026

Beyond Strategic Patience examines evolving regional security dynamics and their implications for Ethiopia’s strategic autonomy and national interests.

Read more: https://ifa.gov.et/blog/768

The capture of Mekelle by federal forces on 3 October 2026 has altered the immediate military balance in northern Ethiopia. TPLF-led forces withdrew f

03/10/2026

WEEKLY STRATEGIC BRIEF | ISSUE NO. 010

The Deniability Tax: Ethiopia’s Diplomatic Break with Asmara and the Rising Cost of Intervention

Ethiopia’s diplomatic measures toward Eritrea mark a significant shift in how Addis Ababa is responding to what it identifies as direct and indirect external intervention.

This week’s IFA Strategic Brief examines the evolving Ethiopia–Eritrea relationship, the changing dynamics of attribution and external involvement, and the strategic costs that arise when deniability becomes increasingly difficult to sustain.

The Brief also explores Ethiopia’s strategic priorities: protecting national security, maintaining economic corridors, strengthening multilateral engagement, and keeping pathways open for peaceful settlement and regional stability.

📘 IFA Weekly Strategic Brief — Issue No. 010
📅 2 October 2026

Read the full analysis and explore IFA’s latest strategic assessment.
https://www.ifa.gov.et/research/37

02/10/2026

CONVENES CLOSED-DOOR EXPERT ROUNDTABLE ON STRATEGIC DETERRENCE IN THE RED SEA AND NILE BASIN

The Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) successfully hosted a high-level, closed-door expert roundtable at the IFA Meeting Hall focused on developing comprehensive strategic responses to evolving geopolitical alignments in the Horn of Africa, Red Sea, and Nile Basin dynamics. The half-day session convened senior government officials, security analysts, and leading regional specialists to evaluate emerging security shifts and calibrate national deterrence measures.

The strategic deliberations addressed critical regional developments, including shifting defense pacts, proxy dynamics and maritime security.
Discussions centered on reinforcing strategic autonomy and safeguarding vital national interests while advancing peaceful regional integration and trade corridor connectivity.

The roundtable delivered actionable framework recommendations for inter-agency coordination across diplomatic, defense, intelligence, and economic sectors.

01/10/2026

Ethiopia Announces Diplomatic Measures in Response to Eritrea

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced the closure of its Embassy in Asmara and declared ten Eritrean diplomats in Addis Ababa persona non grata, citing what it describes as direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence against Ethiopia.

The Ministry states that the diplomats have been given 48 hours to leave Ethiopia, referring to a breach of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

At the same time, the statement reiterates Ethiopia’s commitment to its longstanding historical, cultural, and people-to-people ties with Eritrea, emphasizing peaceful coexistence, regional stability, and integration as guiding principles.

The latest statement marks a significant diplomatic development in Ethiopia–Eritrea relations and carries broader implications for the security and diplomatic landscape of the Horn of Africa.

Read the full statement below.

01/10/2026

From northern Ethiopia to the wider Horn, a recurring pattern of proxy competition is reshaping regional security dynamics.

What lies behind Eritrea’s reported engagement with political and armed actors in northern Ethiopia?

This new IFA analysis examines the evolution of Eritrea’s regional strategy, the role of proxy relationships, and the growing connections between political and security developments across the region. It explores how these dynamics can shape Ethiopia’s security environment and the broader prospects for regional stability.

Read the full analysis:https://www.ifa.gov.et/blog/765

30/09/2026