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Winter 2017-18 EU prospects;

Expected teleconnection drivers include;
1. Low and declining solar
2. eQBO (upper winds Equatorial)
3. Pacific sea temp anomalies (PDO)
4. Atlantic sea temp anomalies (AMO)
5. Neutral ENSO
6. Arctic sea ice and Sibera snow advance (SAI) may have greater impact early winter

Given the expected status of some or indeed all of these can give us an idea of the sort of winter we might get.

In my opinion we are looking at a relatively cold European winter (DJF) overall, say 2 cold months and 1 mild. Trying to get the individual monthly bias is difficult, but I think we are likely to get a 'split' SSW event which will bring a 4 to 6 week cold period Jan and Feb, characterised by sharp or severe frosts, ice and occasional snow episodes. Closest analogue is 2005-6.
I don't think we'll get a winter as extreme as say 2009-10, which was cold all 3 winter months.

At the moment I'm on the other side of the fence to many seasonal models, especially the CFS. Although the August update of the ECMWF certainly moved cooler, though still mild overall.

With 2019-20 potentially looking a severely cold winter. You heard it here first !

Officially the end of winter ? No sign of a return to sig cold - mainly +NAO taking care of that. Some lovely spring sunshine to be had at times. Far cry from the NE U.S. - winter has just dropped in having been mild for most of the winter.

See Glen Spencer on 'Big Centre TV' talking about short and long term weather prospects, as well as a chat about Leicester City following their winning of the Premier league for the 2015-16 season ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3hRwtmFues

Big News - Glen Spencer 3rd May 2016. Meteorologist Glen Spencer joins Lois Swinnerton to talk about the strange weather we have been having in Britain recently, how people can pred...

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