PNG National Weather Service

05/11/2026

PNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

OCTOBER 2026 DROUGHT UPDATE – PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Issued: 28 October 2026

DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA

The Papua New Guinea National Weather Service (PNG NWS), under the Department of Transport, advises the general public, provincial authorities, disaster management agencies and communities that drought conditions continue to affect several parts of the country.
According to the October 2026 Drought Early Warning Status (DEWS) update, drought conditions have persisted for more than four months in some provinces, with varying levels of severity across PNG.

DROUGHT CRITICAL – HIGH PRIORITY
The following areas remain under critical drought conditions:
 National Capital District (NCD)
 Gulf Province
 Western Province
Communities in these areas may experience increased pressure on water supplies, agriculture, food security and livelihoods.
🟠 DROUGHT ALERT
Bougainville, Central, Chimbu, East New Britain, West New Britain, Manus, Milne Bay and Southern Highlands remain under drought alert.
🟡 DROUGHT WATCH
East Sepik, West Sepik, Eastern Highlands, Enga, Jiwaka, Madang, New Ireland, Oro and Western Highlands remain under drought watch.
🌏 WHAT IS INFLUENCING THE CURRENT DROUGHT?
The current drought conditions are associated with established El Niño conditions, which are forecast to persist into early 2027.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also underway, while the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains weak.
🌧️ RAINFALL OUTLOOK
Rainfall conditions are expected to vary across the country during November 2026 to January 2027.
Although the onset of the wet season may bring some relief to drought-affected areas, recovery will depend on the amount, distribution and consistency of rainfall.
⚠️ PUBLIC ADVISORY – WHAT COMMUNITIES SHOULD DO
✅ Conserve and carefully manage available water supplies.
✅ Protect drinking water sources and practise safe water storage.
✅ Farmers should monitor soil moisture and seek agricultural advice before planting.
✅ Communities should take precautions against bushfires and uncontrolled burning.
✅ Provincial Disaster Centres and local authorities should monitor vulnerable communities and prepare appropriate response measures.
✅ Continue monitoring official PNG National Weather Service updates.
📢 IMPORTANT REMINDER
Drought impacts differ between provinces and communities. Even where rainfall begins to improve, water shortages and agricultural impacts may persist.
The PNG National Weather Service will continue monitoring rainfall, vegetation conditions and major climate drivers to provide timely drought early warnings.
📊 Please refer to the attached October 2026 Drought Update for detailed maps, provincial drought classifications and climate outlook information.
📞 For further information:
PNG National Weather Service
Climate and Special Services Team
☎️ 325 5925
📧 [email protected]
Department of Transport | Papua New Guinea National Weather Service

01/11/2026

What do you know about El Niño?

🌡️ El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a naturally occurring powerful climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Shaped by interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above, ENSO is a major driver of year-to-year changes in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather worldwide.

During an El Niño event, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm and trade winds weaken.

🌡️ El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years. It generally begins developing between March and June and reach its peak intensity between November and February. El Niño events can last up to 18 months. But no two El Niños are exactly alike.

The most recent strong El Niño between 2023 – 2024 added a temporary warming effect on top of the long-term warming trend, contributing to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record.

🌡️ Climate change does not cause an El Niño. However, a warmer ocean and atmosphere can add heat and moisture to the climate system, which may worsen some ENSO-related extremes, including heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

28/10/2026

CLIMATE ALERT: STRONG EL NIÑO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO 2027
PAPUA NEW GUINEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Department of Transport | 28 October 2026
PNG COMMUNITIES URGED TO PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND WATER SHORTAGES
The Papua New Guinea National Weather Service (PNG NWS), under the Department of Transport, wishes to draw public attention to the latest regional climate outlook released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network.
The outlook follows the 19th Pacific Islands Climate and Ocean Forum (PICOF-19), successfully hosted in Port Moresby on 20–21 October 2026.
WHAT IS THE LATEST CLIMATE OUTLOOK?
According to the Pacific RCC Network, the current El Niño event is expected to strengthen further, with strong to very strong conditions likely during January to March 2027 and potentially continuing into March–May 2027.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific. It can significantly influence rainfall, temperatures, ocean conditions and tropical cyclone activity.
WHAT COULD THIS MEAN FOR PAPUA NEW GUINEA?
1. BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL
Much of Papua New Guinea and the southwest Pacific is expected to experience below-normal rainfall during November 2026 to January 2027.
Prolonged dry conditions could increase the risk of water shortages, reduced river flows and pressure on agriculture and community water supplies.
2. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
Warmer-than-normal air temperatures are expected across much of PNG and the surrounding region.
Higher temperatures combined with reduced rainfall may increase evaporation, dry out soils and vegetation, and worsen existing drought conditions.
3. IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY
Farmers and rural communities should prepare for possible disruptions to crop production, particularly in areas dependent on regular rainfall.
Reduced soil moisture, prolonged dry spells and local temperature extremes may affect food gardens and agricultural livelihoods.
4. WATER SUPPLY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH
Communities are encouraged to protect existing water sources, practise water conservation and prepare alternative safe water supplies where possible.
Reduced water availability can affect household sanitation, schools, health facilities and other essential services.
5. INCREASED FIRE RISK
Extended dry periods can create favourable conditions for grassland and bushfires.
Communities should exercise caution when burning vegetation, disposing of ci******es or using open fires.
6. MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS
The regional outlook indicates possible lower-than-normal sea levels in parts of the southwest Pacific, including waters around PNG, and increased marine heatwave risks in parts of the Pacific.
Fishermen, coastal communities and maritime operators should continue monitoring official marine weather information.
7. TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
Normal to above-normal tropical cyclone activity is expected across the southwest Pacific region during the 2026–2027 cyclone season.
Although the greatest regional risk is expected farther east, tropical cyclones and associated severe weather remain possible across the wider region.
WHAT SHOULD COMMUNITIES DO NOW?
 Monitor official PNG NWS weather forecasts and climate outlooks.
 Conserve water and protect drinking-water sources.
 Plan agricultural activities using available seasonal climate information.
 Take precautions against bushfires during extended dry conditions.
 Follow advice from provincial disaster authorities and relevant government agencies.
 Share verified weather and climate information with families and communities, especially in remote areas.
IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM PNG NWS
The regional El Niño outlook provides early guidance on possible climate conditions. It does not mean that every province or district in Papua New Guinea will experience the same impacts.
Rainfall, temperature and drought conditions may vary considerably between locations.
PNG NWS will continue monitoring the evolving El Niño event and providing national weather and climate information to support preparedness and informed decision-making.
EARLY INFORMATION. EARLY PREPARATION. SAFER COMMUNITIES.
Source: WMO Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network, PICOF-19 Regional Climate Outlook, issued 23 October 2026.
Full article:
https://www.pacificrcc.net/news/strong-el-nino-influence-rainfall-temperatures-and-cyclones-2027

Strong El Niño to influence rainfall, temperatures and cyclones into 2027 Oct 28, 2026 The warning comes from the official Regional Statement of the 19th Pacific Islands Climate and Ocean Forum (PICOF-19), held in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, on 20 and 21 October 2026. The statement was produced...

20/10/2026

19/10/2026

🇵🇬 MEDIA ALERT | PACIFIC CLIMATE & OCEAN OUTLOOK 2026–2027

The Department of Transport, through the Papua New Guinea National Weather Service (PNG NWS), wishes to inform the media, government agencies, disaster-management partners, climate-sensitive sectors and the general public that the Pacific Islands Climate and Ocean Forum (PICOF) is being held from 20–22 October 2026, with in-person participation at Lamana Hotel, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, as well as virtual participation.

The forum brings together climate and ocean experts from across the Pacific to discuss the regional climate and ocean outlook for November 2026 to April 2027. Particular attention will be given to the El Niño outlook for the South-West Pacific and the impacts of significant weather and ocean events experienced across the region during the past six months.

🌦️ Why is this important for Papua New Guinea?

Regional climate information produced through PICOF provides important scientific guidance for PNG and other Pacific Island countries.

The Department of Transport and PNG NWS recognise the importance of timely climate information to support preparedness, planning and decision-making across climate-sensitive sectors and communities.

PNG NWS will continue to assess regional climate information and communicate what the evolving climate outlook means for Papua New Guinea.

📅 Key sessions for media and stakeholders

Tuesday, 20 October 2026

🔹 10:00 am–10:30 am — ENSO Status and Outlook
An overview of ENSO, the current status of El Niño and the outlook for the coming months, including highlights from the Global Seasonal Climate Update.

🔹 2:00 pm–2:20 pm — Looking Back: Review and Evaluation of the May–October 2026 Climate Outlook
This session will examine recent significant events and their relationship with major drivers of climate variability, including ENSO.

🔹 2:20 pm–4:30 pm — Looking Forward: November 2026–April 2027
Presentation and discussion of monthly and seasonal climate outlook information for the coming six months.

Wednesday, 21 October 2026

🌀 9:15 am–10:00 am — Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Regional tropical cyclone outlook and associated model and multi-model ensemble guidance.

Thursday, 22 October 2026

🎤 1:30 pm–2:30 pm — EL NIÑO PRESS CONFERENCE

A dedicated presentation to the media on the current status of El Niño and its impacts across the Pacific region.

📢 Message from PNG NWS

The Department of Transport and Papua New Guinea National Weather Service encourage the media and relevant stakeholders to follow these important regional climate discussions, particularly the El Niño Press Conference.

Following the forum, PNG NWS will continue to monitor the evolving climate situation and provide PNG-specific climate outlooks, updates and advisories to assist government agencies, communities and climate-sensitive sectors in preparedness and decision-making.

The event is jointly supported by the EU-funded Intra-ACP Climate Services and Related Applications Programme (Intra-ACP ClimSA) and the Climate and Oceans Support Programme in the Pacific (COSPPac).

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
PAPUA NEW GUINEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Providing weather and climate information to support the safety, resilience and sustainable development of Papua New Guinea.

15/10/2026

PUBLIC WEATHER INFORMATION
WHY IS PORT MORESBY CLOUDY BUT NOT RAINING? WHY ARE OUR MORNINGS SO HAZY?
Port Moresby and National Capital District (NCD)
15 October 2026
The PNG National Weather Service would like to explain why Port Moresby and surrounding areas are experiencing cloudy skies with little or no rain, and why the air sometimes looks hazy in the mornings.
1. WHY IS IT CLOUDY BUT NOT RAINING?
Just because the sky is cloudy does not mean it will rain.
Clouds form when water vapour in the air cools and turns into tiny water droplets. However, these droplets must grow bigger and heavier before they can fall as rain.
At this time of the year, Port Moresby is usually affected by dry southeasterly winds. These winds can limit the amount of moisture available for rainfall.
Sometimes, clouds form but do not grow enough to produce rain. At other times, rain begins to fall from the clouds but evaporates before reaching the ground.
This is why we can have cloudy skies for most of the day without receiving rain.
2. WHY IS THERE HAZE IN THE MORNING?
You may have noticed that the air looks grey, smoky or dusty during the early morning.
This is called haze.
Haze happens when very small particles float in the air and make it difficult to see clearly over long distances.
These particles may come from:
▪ Smoke from burning grass, bushfires or rubbish.
▪ Dust from roads, construction sites and dry ground.
▪ Smoke and gases from vehicles and other engines.
▪ Smoke or dust carried by winds from other areas.
During the night and early morning, winds are sometimes very light. This allows smoke and dust to build up near the ground.
As the sun rises and the ground becomes warmer, the air starts to move and mix. This can help clear the haze.
Please note: PNG NWS has not yet confirmed the exact cause of the haze currently being reported in Port Moresby.
3. IS THE HAZE DANGEROUS TO OUR HEALTH?
Haze can affect our health, especially if it contains smoke, dust or other harmful particles.
Some particles are so small that we cannot see them. When we breathe them in, they can travel deep into our lungs.
People who may be more affected include:
▪ Babies and young children.
▪ Elderly people.
▪ People with asthma or other breathing problems.
▪ People with heart problems.
▪ People who work or exercise outdoors.
Haze may cause coughing, eye irritation, a sore throat or difficulty breathing.
However, we need air-quality measurements to know how polluted the air is and whether the current haze presents a serious health risk.
4. SHOULD WE WEAR FACE MASKS?
If the air is very smoky or dusty, it is sensible to take precautions.
Here are some simple steps to protect yourself and your family:
Spend less time outdoors when the haze is heavy.
Avoid running, exercising or doing heavy work outside when the air is smoky.
If you must go outside in smoky conditions, a properly fitted N95 or P2 mask can help protect you from breathing in fine particles.
Ordinary cloth masks and loose surgical masks do not provide the same level of protection against fine smoke particles.
Keep windows and doors closed when smoke is entering your home, if it is safe to do so.
Avoid burning rubbish, grass or other materials near homes.
If you experience serious breathing difficulties or chest pain, seek medical help immediately.
5. WHAT IS PNG NWS DOING?
PNG NWS can study weather conditions that may be contributing to the morning haze, including:
▪ Wind direction and speed.
▪ Temperature and moisture in the air.
▪ Visibility at Jacksons Airport and other locations.
▪ Satellite images showing clouds, smoke and possible fire activity.
The exact source of the haze and its effects on health will need further investigation with the responsible environmental and health authorities.
IMPORTANT THINGS TO REMEMBER
Cloudy skies do not always mean rain. Clouds need enough moisture and the right weather conditions to produce rainfall.
Morning haze can have several causes. Smoke, dust and other tiny particles may build up near the ground when winds are light.
Protect your health. Reduce your time outdoors when the air is very smoky or irritating. A properly fitted N95 or P2 mask can help reduce exposure to fine particles.
The cause of the current haze is not yet confirmed. Further weather observations and air-quality measurements are needed.
PNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Keeping our communities informed about weather and climate.

12/10/2026

The Sirinumu Dam in Central Province has now reached the point at which a decision could be made to prioritize water for consumption and reduce releases for power generation.

Read more: https://www.nbc.com.pg/post/41094/prioritise-water-for-consumption

10/10/2026

01/10/2026

𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐎𝐍𝐆 𝐖𝐈𝐍𝐃 𝐖𝐀𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆:
REVIEWED AT: 11:00 AM | Thursday, 1st October, 2026.

𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗔𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦:
COASTAL WATERS OF:
► SOUTHERN PNG/INDONESIAN BORDER TO DARU TO GULF OF PAPUA TO YULE ISLAND TO PORT MORESBY TO HOOD POINT
►TO WATERS OF MILNE BAY ISLANDS TO CAPE VOGEL,
► FROM FINSCHHAFEN, THROUGH VITIAZ & DAMPIER STRAITS, INCLUDING SIASSI & LONG ISLANDS
► WATERS OF EAST SEPIK,
► WATERS OF WEST NEW BRITAIN, RABAUL TO KOKOPO, THROUGH ST. GEORGE CHANNEL, INCLUDING DUKE OF YORK ISLAND TO NAMATANAI DISTRICT,
►AND WATERS OF MANUS.

𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗡𝗢𝗧𝗘:
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25-33 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS, CAUSING ROUGH SEAS.

𝗖𝗔𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡:
ALL SMALL CRAFT AND BOATS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTION BEFORE GOING OUT TO SEA, ESPECIALLY IN THESE WARNING AREAS.

NEXT REVIEW: 5:00 PM, Thursday, 01/10/26.

01/10/2026

𝐆𝐀𝐋𝐄 𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐂𝐄 𝐖𝐈𝐍𝐃 𝐖𝐀𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆:
REVIEWED AT: 11:00 AM | Thursday, 1st October, 2026.

𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗔𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦:
WATERS OF:
► VITIAZ/DAMPIER STRAIT TO SIASSI AND LONG ISLANDS TO
► KANDRIAN/GLOUCESTER, AND TALASEA DISTRICT OF WEST NEW BRITAIN, RABAUL TO KOKOPO, THROUGH ST. GEORGE CHANNEL, INCLUDING DUKE OF YORK ISLANDS, AND
► BISMARCK SEA.

𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗡𝗢𝗧𝗘:
VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, CAUSING VERY ROUGH AND HIGH SEAS.

𝗖𝗔𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡:
ALL SMALL CRAFT AND SEA-GOING VESSELS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO AVOID GOING OUT TO SEA OR TO SEEK SAFE HARBOUR.
VILLAGES LOCATED ALONG THE COASTLINES OF THE SPECIFIED WARNING AREAS MUST REMAIN HIGHLY VIGILANT AND TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD LIVES AND PROPERTY.

NEXT REVIEW: 5:00 PM, Thursday, 01/10/26