07/02/2026
Yes, I know it's July 2 and that fall leaf colors are still 3-4 months away, but I thought I'd give you a heads up, since I am getting a lot of inquiries about the possible effects of the drought, which is quite severe. So, take a look at this first report for 2026.
Hope your summer is going well. Stay cool - record high temperatures coming for the July 4th holiday!
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Fall Color First Report for 2026
Welcome to the first report by the Fall Color Guy for the 2026 fall leaf color season. It’s way too early to say what is going to happen in October, but I can give you an assessment of current conditions and some ideas about what this might mean for fall leaf color this year.
As you know, North Carolina is experiencing a severe drought and it extends right into the mountains. You can view the current state of the drought in NC up to June 25 at this url: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC
The night of June 30 we had a severe thunderstorm with nearly an inch of rain, and a few nights earlier we received a full inch of rain. So at least in my part of Watauga County, we have been getting much needed rain. But thunderstorms tend to be highly local and scattered events and nearby areas might not get as much as others.
Just north of us and extending into the Piedmont the drought severity is characterized as D3, which is Extreme Drought, the second highest drought rating there is. Watauga County is currently at D2, one step down but still considered Severe Drought (we are 7” below normal for the year). Experts say the county needs 12-14” of rain to pull out of this current drought. Graham and Swain counties are in Severe Drought (D3) and Fontana Lake target levels are more than 7 feet below where they should be.
All of this does cause me some concern for two reasons: First, a severe drought could result in the premature loss of leaves in late summer or early fall. When trees are suffering from water stress, they often drop their leaves, which is an effective way of reducing their demand for water. Second, our forests are more prone to fires during drought years.
The last severe drought was in 2016 and that was when we had devastating fires in the Smokies, where 14 people lost their lives and over 190 sustained injuries. This year, we have dry conditions but now they are exacerbated by a massive accumulation of downed timber caused by Hurricane Helene in 2024. This extra fuel load could result in more severe conflagrations if any get started. We are going to have to be vigilant this year regarding fires.
Despite all this, the trees right now look quite good. I don’t see any signs of stress as we begin July and if we get steady rains over the next two months, we should have good color in the fall.
However, as I’ve always said each year, if it remains unusually warm through September and into October, that will delay the onset of fall color, which is exactly opposite of what drought may do, so the impacts of these two stressors oppose each other, making predictions of the fall color season somewhat tenuous this far in advance.
But I am encouraged by the current state of the trees and that gives me hope that despite this unusual weather (caused in part by winter legacy effects of a La Nina that happened off the west coast of South America) we may yet have a good fall leaf color season. Stay tuned!
To see or report current drought impacts, please visit the Drought Impacts Toolkit, where you can find impacts from media in the Drought Impact Reporter and from citizen scientists and other volunteer observers under Condition Monitoring Observations.
