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First Due Weather Reports I am a retired Yarmouth Lt. Firefighter/EMT, and love Weather! Here you will see storm predictions, that are exclusively MY opinion not the NWS forecasts.

02/21/2026

Well, well, folks, it’s been a year or two since I last posted on my weather page. The number one reason is that there are many other weather pages, that “Home Meteorologists” that are meteorologists and some amateur ones that are set up with many more tools than I have, and compete with them. I follow most of them, and made friends and learned a lot from them!

However, with this major storm approaching the Cape and Islands, and being a retired Firefighter/EMT, and of course my love of Weather, it well suites me to pass on the following advice and my thoughts on the potential Blizzard of 2026. So I’ll just hit some bulletin points on what I expect.

*** We may start as rain, especially mid to lower Cape, and end as rain, however the in between with be all heavy, cement snow.

**** We haven’t had a blizzard since 2022, and this one should be taken very seriously! I know most of the towns will post on their FD and PD pages, regarding thr storm, warming stations, parking bans,, and keep you updated. Pay Attention to those!

**** Please prepare for extended power outages, it will happen, you all know what means.

**** This will be a 24-36 hour plus storm, ending Tuesday morning.
Stay off the roads unless absolutely necessary. Let the DPW do their job.

**** The amount of snow we get, really doesn’t matter! This snow will be concrete! It will bring tree branches down onto wires, cause trees to come down! Honestly this would be a better storm to be all snow, without the interjection of rain and or sleet, just adds insult to injury.

**** If the low passes above the 40/70 benchmark, we will get more rain, but as the low intensifies at 18,000 plus feet, and cold air aloft, it will bring snow at 1” to 3” hourly rates. Thunder May happen, don’t be surprised to hear it!

**** With the barometric pressure being in the 960-980 MB, people with sinus, migraine, history, you will feel it! Some pets who have anxiety will feel it as well!

**** So with that being said, total snow from Upper to Lower Cape will most likely be in the area of:

12-18 Upper
10-12 Mid
8-12 Lower

***** Subject to Change****

Stay Safe!

09/14/2023

**********************MY THINKING FOR LEE********************

I have waited all day to say what I feel will happen Friday and Saturday.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the NHC drops our Tropical Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch as Lee continues to weaken on his Northerly journey. The cone of uncertainty has moved Lee a little further east, from the GFS run. The EURO run has a slight jog left, but even is after he passes north and east of Provincetown.

We should essentially at this point expect a typical good Ole Nor’Easter.
Timing should be wind’s ramping up late tomorrow afternoon with bands of rain starting tomorrow night.

The north side of the Cape will get some minor flooding on the exposed beaches and harbors. The storm surge warning has been dropped.

We will be asleep for most of this as by late afternoon we may see the sun set! It should be noted that any further jog to the east, we may have a very nice windy weekend! I know some will say, I knew this would happen, and everyone jumped through their, well you know. It is always good to be prepared, and yes someday, unfortunately the Cape will get a Hurricane, I just hope not anytime soon.

09/13/2023

**********************Model Guidances/Iceberg Lettuce ******************

I am sure most of you have been watching the weather for what may or not happen regarding Hurricane Lee. The models that the pros use have been jogging right, further away from us and jogging left, closer to the Cape. This is always the expectations with major storms, due to an anomaly of reasons. We have the jet stream, upper and lower steering currents, High Pressure, Low Pressure and so on. So these models take all that into consideration and put out their box of spaghetti, hence the term Spaghetti Models. The US uses the GFS and Euro models and kinda goes with the in between to forecast a storm, hence the cone on uncertainty.

As Lee moves north towards cooler waters, he is going to grow in size, due to the coolers waters “opening” the storm. Think of it like Iceberg Lettuce!
The core of the lettuce is small and “tight”. As we open the lettuce, it expands and we get the leafy parts of the lettuce we use for sandwiches, and salads. Well the Hurricane acts similarly, the cooler waters, open the storm and make it bigger, and expand the wind fields and rain bands.

The western side of the Hurricane is favorable in respect for the winds, however the western side has strong winds and heavy rain bands.

So what do I feel, will happen, and again, I will say, my opinion only and not an official forecast, save that for the pros.

With the constant jogging, I feel at this time we will experience a good ol’ Nor’Easter, with some Tropical Force wind gusts, rain bands, with North Side of the Cape taking the “brunt” of the winds and potential flooding in low lying areas. The ground is saturated already and with full foliage on the trees still, there could be some power outages.

Timing will be late Friday night into Saturday. I post more when more data comes out later today.

*********My Thoughts And Opinions NOT An Official Forecast*********Hurricane Lee has been on the map for over a week now...
09/11/2023

*********My Thoughts And Opinions NOT An Official Forecast*********

Hurricane Lee has been on the map for over a week now and I am sure everyone is wondering if the Cape will be effected. There are still many variables still on map on the effects Lee could bring. The models have been going back and forth, meaning Lee goes out to sea, away from us, Lee trends more towards NE and Nova Scotia. The models once again bring Leed closer to us and at this time I believe the models will stay on this track. I’ll list my thoughts below;

1) Time line will be all day Saturday

2) If Lee pays a visit it will most likely be on the western side, which is the lesser windier side, but have tropical strength wind gusts and rain bands.

3) The strength of Lee should be at Tropical Storm Strength or a weak Cat. 1 Hurricane.

4) The forecast from the National Hurricane Center will most likely issue Tropical Storm watches for our area by Wednesday, if the current GFS and Euro models stay on track.

5) I think at this time we will experience tropical storm wind gusts and get a healthy dose of rain. I would take in any loose objects that at can be blown around, prepare for some power outages, as the air will be tropical in nature.

AGAIN, my thoughts and not an official forecast….

Robb

09/08/2023

*******************************PSA**********************

Peeps, I will not even attempt to say if or what any effects we will get from Hurricane Lee. I’ll leave that to the professionals, my only advice is to keep an eye on it, as obviously a very fluid situation. There too many “amateurs” out in social media world “forecasting” what will happen.

09/07/2023

Good evening. First I want to say I have no prediction, or any idea at this time of Hurricane Lee will have any effects in our area. It is certainly a good idea to keep an eye on over the next few days to how Lee evolves.

2nd I can’t believe what I’m reading on some of the other weather pages I monitor, and people hoping we get a Cat. 4 Hurricane! I love weather and a “good” storm. I however do not like the idea of a potential major Hurricane hitting us. I saw the devastation of Hurricane Ian just 11 months ago, when Beth and I went to Nort Port to help my father in law and check on him. I never wish this upon anyone.

03/13/2023

****************Long Duration Nor’Easter Thoughts*************

My thoughts on the upcoming long duration storm actually starting now with light rain and drizzle are my own. There is still time for some wiggle room regarding if we see any accumulating snow. The time frame if we were to get or see snow would occur in evening Tuesday into Wednesday morning, possibly changing back to rain. The real focus here is the wind out of the East, Northeast, to North and then Northwest. The snow will have a hard time collecting on the surface roadways. This is partially due to the angle of the Sun in March and the possibility of the towns and state pre treating the roadways. One thing for sure, will be the drop of the barometric pressure! Those who experience headaches or sinus pressure during a storm with strong winds and precipitation, is related to the barometric pressure.
Power outages are very possible with some of us in the area getting gusts to over 60mph, and I will not be surprised if we see a 65-70mph gust Upper Cape to the Plymouth area. The north and east side of the Cape will see the the storm surges from the wind and tightening of the storm as it wraps around us bringing colder temperatures Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

********Do not be surprised if you hear Thunder late Tuesday night*****

Here’s the breakdown for our area:

Rest of today rain and drizzle, light winds

Tuesday, increasing rain and winds. Wind gusts 40-50 increasing over night with possible gusts hitting the 60mph

Tuesday Night, winds still high, temperatures will start to drop, and this is where it gets tricky. Does the storm start maybe drift a little to south under us, and brings more snow to the area, or does the low pass closer to us and prolong the changeover.

Wednesday morning, Snow to rain, winds slowly subside.

02/27/2023

*****************Tuesday’s Minor Weather Event****************

Expect the snow to start around midnight or so lasting into the early morning hours and during the am commute. The snow will chand to sleet, then rain as temperatures rise above freezing. The roads will most likely be pre-treated thus making the morning commute a little easier. Upper Cape area may have up to 4” at most before the changeover. The rest of the Cape around 1”-3”.
We may have another snow event this weekend, Friday into Saturday, stay tuned.

02/26/2023

***************Tuesday Morning Nuisance Snow/Rain***********

This Winter certainly has not been a weather geek’s wants for Winter weather! However, if you are lucky enough to atop Mt.Washington’s weather observatory, that’s a whole different ballgame!

In true New England weather fashion, my wife and I were in York, Maine this pass Monday for a couple of nights. Monday afternoon we sat out on our deck in our room at the York Harbor Inn (our favorite place to stay) enjoying a glass of wine and was a balmy 55 degrees, then on Tuesday brought 1-2” of snow!

The next weather system, can’t really call it a storm, will begin as one system, then split into 2 systems, which is the easiest way to describe it. One will pass over the western part of the state bringing more snow amounts there. The other system will slide under Nantucket Sound bringing snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. The snow will change to rain pretty quickly after the morning rush hour, 7-8 am area, resulting in a 1”-3” total accumulation. The only caveat to this, would if, the system passing to the west of us, decides to come and hang out the system sliding under Nantucket, which would bring more snow accumulation to us. Right now most of the models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Have great day!

01/16/2023

*********1 More Quick Burst Of Snow Later This Afternoon**********
We will have 1 more quick burst of snow later this early afternoon and then that will be it for this system. This shouldn’t add up to more than a .5 to 1“.

Stay Safe!

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