10/09/2026
***OUTDATED POST: SEE PAGE FOR LATEST INFORMATION***
Hurricane Isaias is strengthening as of 4:00 AM CDT Friday, with the center located about 370 miles north-northeast of Progreso Mexico. The hurricane is moving north-northeast near 15 mph, and the minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained winds are up to 110 mph, with higher gusts, and the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning.
On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday. A turn toward the north is expected later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
The most immediate threat is storm surge, where the combination of dangerous surge and the tide could flood normally dry coastal areas. Water levels could reach 5 to 7 ft from Dauphin Island, AL to Indian Pass, FL, 4 to 6 ft from Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL, and 3 to 5 ft from the Steinhatchee River, FL to the Suwannee River, FL. Farther west, the Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL could see 3 to 5 ft, with Mobile Bay at 3 to 5 ft and the Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL at 2 to 4 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where onshore winds coincide with the surge and large, dangerous waves.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area tonight into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours. Rainfall through the weekend is expected to total 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches possible, especially where bands set up across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Flash and urban flooding is likely, and river flooding is also expected, with some significant impacts possible. A tornado risk begins late this afternoon and continues tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia, then continues Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Swells from Isaias are already affecting the western and northern Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast later today, bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS, and from the East of Bay/Gulf County Line to the Aucilla River, FL. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL. Preparations should be rushed to completion as the weather will go downhill quickly today.