09/19/2026
๐ง๏ธ Our official last call forecast for rainfall totals between tonight and Sunday evening, dated September 18th through 20th, 2026.
A larger system has been on our radar since the beginning of the week for Saturday. While a low chance for severe thunderstorms exists late Saturday into Sunday in our southwest corner, the main storyline is the rainfall. With PWAT values and moisture transport both on the higher side of the spectrum for atmospheric support, rainfall rates could be as high as 3"+ per hour. With that known, some locations could pick up their 2-4" in under 90 minutes, or it may take all weekend. Of note, some locations will underachieve. We've been pondering the upper-air maps, and are still curious to see if the thumb and SE Michigan actually see more, or less rainfall advect their direction. Same thing up north of US-10 where dry air is currently winning the battle.
Shown are area-wide averages. It is important to note this as not everyone will see the allotted totals for their area. Highest confidence right now is absolutely southwestern Michigan. Best chance at locally higher amounts will be anywhere south of US-10. We even highlighted the best chance of a location or two seeing 3-6" south of that red dashed line. If you want to stay relatively dry, head north of the Mackinac Bridge.
We will be locked in on flood alerts as needed Saturday into Sunday. Remember, you car can float in as little as 6" of stagnant or moving water. Avoid flooded roadways. If you can't see the bottom, you truly don't know how deep the water goes, especially in the event of a road washout.
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