Al Hirschfeld At The Margo Feiden Galleries Ltd.

𝐎𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐚 𝐕𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟗—𝐚𝐥𝐬𝐨 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐂𝐎𝐕𝐈𝐃–𝟏𝟗 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬

I am being urged by the people around me to write down what I’ve said to them and give the same information to you.

This, because so much of what I hear as “factual” about the coronavirus is either not true or half true and characterized by omission.

When these masquerade-facts are believed, it can cost lives. In this writing, I am addressing only one of these problematic “facts.”

If I am asking you to rely on what I say, I need to tell you some of my background. But please feel free to skip the next three sections, my “numerical biography,” and start reading from the section titled, “And now.”

𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐦𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝:

Over the course of decades, I have been privileged to be the primary caretaker for loved ones with serious illnesses. I continue to actively serve as a health proxy for dear friends.

That, along with my insatiable curiosity, has taught me how to ask medical questions and how to evaluate the answers.
But what I bring to this writing is not medical expertise. Rather, what I bring to this writing is numbers.

The greatest gift I was born with was to be born of gifted parents. The one subject in which my parents’ gifts corresponded was their affinity with numbers.

Growing up, numbers were among my favorite playmates.

𝐅𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝:

In college at Hofstra, I had a double major, Theater and Psychology.

Owing to my lifelong affair with numbers—after taking my Statistics midterm, I was excused from class with an A+ and given an assistantship in the Psychology Department. There, I worked for two professors—my Social Psychology professor Dr. Shirley P. Langer, and my Statistics professor Dr. Morris Gross.

I was twice asked to step in as the substitute lecturer for Dr. Gross when a medical situation kept him from his class.

𝐅𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧:

One decade and two children later, I decided I wanted to lose weight—a lot of weight. To do this, I went back to my old friends, the numbers.

When I studied the numbers, what they told me was astonishing. What the numbers told me helped me to successfully lose weight.

What the numbers told me was so revolutionary, that it became the basis for a book, The Calorie Factor (Simon & Schuster, 1989).

Filled with lots of numbers and prose, my book won the Library Journal Award as one of the “10 Best Reference Books of the Year.” The book was cited as the best book ever written on the subject of losing weight.

What the book enunciated for the very first time—what the numbers had clearly shown me—is that most people who are overweight do not overeat. One year after my book was published—suddenly a shelf-full of other books were published with the same pronouncement. I remember my reaction at the time, in agreement with the sentiments of Oscar Wilde and also Andy Warhol. To imitate is to flatter.

More than any accolade, what satisfied and humbled me the most was that my book was used as the sole reference for Jamie McCarthy’s study, “A Policy of Deliberate Starvation.” The study sought to answer the sobering question, what was the calorie-allotment given to inmates at the Belsen Concentration Camp.

𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐰:

And now I am looking at numbers again. This time, for the coronavirus.

The numbers that I will refer to have all been published—and are easily available to everyone. They are the numbers generated by the World Health Organization and published on World Wide Web at
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-s*x-demographics/
My conclusions are based on the numbers published as of the afternoon of March 13, 2020.

As you read about the numbers, you’ll see that I frequently use the word “average.”

There’s more than one definition of the word “average.” When I use the word, I am always referring to the calculated “mean average.”

To calculate the “mean average” you start with a set of numbers.You add them together and then divide the total by the number of entries in your set.

So, visualize this: Let’s say you’re a company that manufactures shampoo made especially for people with long hair. And let’s say you want to film a TV commercial. You put out a casting call for long-haired models.

Twelve models show up. The length of hair for each of the 12 models is 20 inches, 22, 26, 28, 29, 30, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, and 50. The total of all their lengths combined equals 428 inches; 428 inches gives you the mean average of 35.667 inches. Yet, not one of the models actually has 35 or 36 inch-long hair.

𝐀𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬:

Some weeks ago, as I remember it, the mortality rate from the coronavirus was cited in the media as 2.3%.

The mortality rate that I hear cited now is about 3.5%. In other words, out of every 100 people who contract the coronavirus, 3 ½ of them will die. Expressed in whole numbers, 7 people out of every 200 who contract the coronavirus die.

𝐁𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤:

I am going to start this section by going back to what I said in the beginning of this writing. “… so much of what I hear as “factual” about the coronavirus is either not true or half true and characterized by omission.

Last week, around the time of the South Carolina primary vote, I happened to have the TV news turned on.

A journalist who was in South Carolina to cover the vote, was interviewing Dr. Scott Curry of the Medical University of South Carolina.

The interviewer asked Dr. Curry whether getting vaccinated against the flu would help you with the coronavirus. Dr. Curry said, “No.” Actually, Dr. Curry said “No, No, No!”

Dr. Curry is wrong. Anyone who says that the flu vaccine won’t help you now is wrong.

In fairness to Dr. Curry: I am certain that what Dr. Curry meant by his triple use of the word “No”—is that the flu vaccine won’t inoculate you against the coronavirus.

Still, Dr. Curry gave up a diamond opportunity. Because, in fact, possibly the single most important, yet unheralded, action you can take during this pandemic is to get a flu shot. And soon I’m going to tell you why.

Back to our twelve long-haired models: Just like our models whose average length of hair is 35.667 inches though not a single model has 35 or 36 inches-long-hair—there is not even one group of people with the coronavirus whose actual mortality rate is the often-cited 2.3% or 3.5%.

𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬:

This section includes lots of numbers. If numbers don’t appeal to you, you might decide to skip this section and go below to the section called The Flu Shot. That section also has some numbers, but they are all in one paragraph.

The currently-cited 3.5% death rate that we keep hearing about is a calculated mean average. It is a rate achieved by adding together all the people who have shown a zero or less than 1% chance of dying and averaging them in with all the people who have the highest-mortality rate.

But the 3.5% death rate is not informative. In fact, even the very numbers that go into that average are themselves mis-informative.

This is an example: I keep hearing that the mortality rate for octogenarians with the coronavirus is 14.8%. But, in fact, that 14.8% is not based on octogenarians with the coronavirus. It is a mixed set based on octogenarians in whom the coronavirus is confirmed added together with those octogenarians for whom the coronavirus is merely suspected.

Among octogenarians who are actually confirmed to have the coronavirus, the mortality rate is a whopping 21.9%. This is the real number of deaths, more than 21 people out of every 100.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐥𝐮 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐭:

Defining the flu: In the last few decades, it has become commonplace to use the word “flu” to mean a bad cold. The flu is not a bad cold. The flu is a dangerous respiratory illness that may keep you very, very sick for weeks. Also, the flu can kill you.

A cold may last a week or two, and then be forgotten; if you get the flu, you will remember it forever.

Going once again to the World Health Organization statistics, in the next paragraph are the mortality rates based not on age, but on pre-existing conditions.

I am using the mortality rates for people with confirmed coronavirus. I am ignoring the mortality rates for people with unconfirmed coronavirus, as I find those numbers misleading. But if those numbers are interesting to you, you can easily find them on the website I previously referred you to.

The numbers are clear. For every age group up to the age of 79, it is people with these pre-existing conditions that have the highest mortality rate: People with cardiovascular disease have a mortality rate of 13.2%; with diabetes, 9.2%; with chronic respiratory disease, 8%; with hypertension, 8.4%; with cancer, 7.6%.

But for people who contract the coronavirus and have no “pre-existing condition,” the mortality rate drops way, way down to 0.9%, less than one in one hundred.

𝐀𝐭 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭:

And here, at last, are my three reasons for saying that getting the flu shot may be the most important proactive step you can take against dying from the coronavirus.

1. If you have the flu and you are seriously ill for weeks, you will almost certainly need to seek medical attention. Where do you go for medical attention? Your doctor’s office? A clinic? A hospital emergency room?

Anywhere you can go for medical attention, now puts you at a still-higher risk of exposure to the coronavirus at a time when your body can least defend itself.

2. The flu is a serious respiratory illness. If you contract the flu, you instantly become a person with a pre-existing condition.

3. If you have the flu and then you contract the coronavirus—you are much more likely to die.

The converse is also true. If you have the coronavirus, and then you contract the flu–you are much more likely to die.

Regardless of your age, if you contract the coronavirus and the flu, you instantly go from a low-risk group into the highest-risk group.

Think of it as being a long-haired model who goes to sleep and wakes up with a crew cut.

𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐚 "𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥" 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐥𝐮:

The flu as we experience it in the United States is known as a seasonal flu. As that handle would suggest, the flu comes and goes with the seasons.

I hear it over and over again, and so probably you do too, that the coronavirus may disappear with the coming of warmer weather. That would be great. But I’m not optimistic.

Here’s why: Singapore, for example, is among the nations now suffering with the coronavirus. Singapore is less than 100 miles from the equator. Daily temperatures now are typically 90°F, or more.

Australia is in the southern hemisphere. The coronavirus is there although this is the middle of Australia’s summer.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧:

The numbers show that the coronavirus does not follow an “arithmetic” progression. Its spread is more like a “geometric” progression.

What is the difference between “arithmetic” and “geometric” progressions? Let’s use the number “3.”

In an arithmetic progression, our “3” would progress as follows: 3+3 = 6; 6+3 = 9; 9+3 = 12; 12+3 = 15. In four steps, an arithmetic progression takes you from 3 to 15.

In a geometric progression, our “3” would progress as follows: 3×3 = 9; 9×3 = 27; 27×3 = 81; 81×3 = 243. In four steps, a geometric progression takes you from 3 to 243.

In addition to spreading more like a geometric progression, the coronavirus is stoic. It can live on inorganic surfaces without a host for hours—perhaps even for days.

This means that the “social distancing” advice to stay 6 ft. away from other people is good, but not perfect. The perfect advice might be to stay 6 ft. away from any place where anyone else has been in the last 96 hours.

So, unless you are prepared to sequester yourself like a black bear in winter, the numbers say that you will be exposed to the coronavirus.

The coronavirus is likely to be with us for a long time. Get a flu shot immediately if you possibly can—and again at the start of every flu season. (And ask your doctor about the pneumonia vaccine, as well.)

This is what the numbers say as of 5 PM on March 13, 2020.

𝐄𝐧𝐝𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐬:

If you haven’t been getting the flu shot because of a religious objection, it would be rude of me to argue with you.

If you haven’t been getting the flu shot because of a valid medical objection, it would be ignorant of me to argue with you.

If you haven’t been getting the flu shot because of anything else, you are the reason I wrote this.

𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓰𝓸 𝓕𝓮𝓲𝓭𝓮𝓷
Margo Feiden
March 16, 2020

Coronavirus Age, S*x, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer Age, s*x, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

"What!" exclaimed the Ghost, "Would you so soon put out, with worldly hands, the light I give?

A Christmas must see - tickets still available for tonight and next week follow the events below! Last night I went to the production of A Christmas Carol set in the stunning @morrisjumel mansion performed the way Dickens would have done it in 1853, Jeffries Thaiss playing all characters and Eric Scott Anthony singing carols & providing Victorian Era sound effects! You will laugh, you might cry (tiny Tim gets me every time!!!) you will be enthralled from start to finish .....@christmascarolplaywithmusic plays tonight @morrisjumel and then @alhirschfeldmargofeidengallery on East 9th St where your ticket will include a Mrs Cratchit’s Christmas Dinner - it doesn’t get more festive than that! God bless us, every one 🎄 . . . . . #theatre #actor #music #carol #christmas #christmascarols #historichomes #historicnyc #charlesdickens #morrisjumel #morrisjumelmansion #alhirschfeldtheatre #alhirschfeld #victorianera #mrscratchit #tinytim #scrooge #ebenezer #ebenezerscrooge #godblessuseveryone #christmas #festive #seasonsgreetings #feelgood #heartwarming

Celebrating a Happy Anniversary surrounded with Al Hirschfeld's Art in the Mansion/Museum at the Margo Feiden Galleries Ltd

A Happy Anniversary Celebrated in the Mansion/Museum at the Margo Feiden Galleries Ltd Al Hirschfeld Gallery

It may be nifty to come and go in a jiffy,
But it’s even more nifty to know that you’ve reached Fifty.
𝑀𝒶𝓇𝑔𝑜 𝐹𝑒𝒾𝒹𝑒𝓃 𝒢𝒶𝓁𝓁𝑒𝓇𝒾𝑒𝓈 𝐿𝓉𝒹.
𝐸𝓈𝓉𝒶𝒷𝓁𝒾𝓈𝒽𝑒𝒹 November 19, 1969

Happy Birthday, Orson Welles!

Al Hirschfeld's Hand Signed Limited Edition Lithograph of Orson Welles: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00KSP6LQO?ref=myi_title_dp

"Oh, to be in England
Now that April 's there,
And whoever wakes in England
Sees, some morning, unaware,
That the..."

-Robert Browning, beginning of "Home-thoughts, from Abroad"

Al Hirschfeld's Mary Poppins Flying Over London: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00HZQV9O8?ref=myi_title_dp

Happy Birthday to TWO Broadway legends, Andrew Lloyd Webber and Stephen Sondheim!

The work of Andrew Lloyd Webber, who the New York Times called “the most commercially successful composer in history,” and Stephen Sondheim, the “best-known artist in the American musical theater,” has been shaping the musical theater industry for over half a century.

Stephen Sondheim is perhaps best known as the composer and lyricist for Into the Woods, A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum, Passion, and Sweeney Todd, among many others. He was also the lyricist for Gypsy and West Side Story. Putting it Together, a musical r***e celebrating the music of Stephen Sondheim, premiered on Broadway in 1999.

Some of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s best-known works as composer include Phantom of the Opera, Sunset Boulevard, Cats, and Evita. Phantom of the Opera, which premiered in 1986, is currently the longest-running show in Broadway history.

Celebrate the birthdays of these two icons by enjoying Al Hirschfeld’s renderings of some of their best works:

Into the Woods: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00MG5ZI5E?ref=myi_title_dp

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00I8X1N70?ref=myi_title_dp

Whoopi Goldberg in A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00KQ40DF2?ref=myi_title_dp

Passion: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00N5DN984?ref=myi_title_dp

Gypsy: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07NDM4KDJ?ref=myi_title_dp

Putting it Together: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00N5DSR7W?ref=myi_title_dp

Phantom of the Opera: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07NJ6RRBX?ref=myi_title_dp

Phantom of the Opera, Journey: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07NVY6737?ref=myi_title_dp

Sunset Boulevard: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00HVKLU0Q?ref=myi_title_dp

Al Hirschfeld's INTO THE WOODS Hand Signed Limited Edition Lithograph; Bernadette Peters, Robert Westenberg

On this day in 1966, at the 8th Annual Grammy Awards, Barbra Streisand won Best Vocal Performance for her album “My Name is Barbra.”

27 years later, in 1993, this Lithograph was commissioned by SONY Records as a gift to Miss Streisand upon the release of her album "Barbra: Back to Broadway."

You can purchase Al Hirschfeld’s “Barbra: Back to Broadway” here:

Al Hirschfeld's BARBRA: BACK TO BROADWAY Hand Signed Limited Edition Lithograph Al Hirschfeld's Barbra: Back to Broadway is a Limited Edition Lithograph, hand signed by Al Hirschfeld. Barbra: Back To Broadway was commissioned by SONY records as a gift to Miss Streisand upon the release of her "Barbra: Back to Broadway" album. Edition size: 175 numbered impressions. Paper siz...

On this day, February 5th, in 1936, Modern Times premiered at the Rivoli Theatre in New York City.

In the Los Angeles Times the following week, Norbert Lusk wrote of the film's premiere:

"The magnificent reception given Modern Times by the press and public at last week’s premiere at the Rivoli Theatre gains confirmation as the picture settles down for a long run. Every record achieved in the eighteen years the theatre has stood on Broadway has been broken. For the first time in its existence a showing at 2:30 a.m. is a nightly occurrence and it is said that 70,000 persons saw the film over its first weekend. Be that as it may, the critical salvos are virtually without a parallel. There is everything to prove that reviewers consider Charlie Chaplin the greatest artist of the day as conclusively as exhibitors recognize him as the greatest attraction.”

You can purchase Al Hirschfeld's portrait of Charlie Chaplin in Modern Times here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00IZPKRAA?ref=myi_title_dp

Margo Feiden speaking:

As I said I would, I am returning here to share a Carol Channing Memory, on this, Carol Channing’s first missed Birthday, January 31, 2019.

In 1964, the title role of Dolly skyrocketed Carol from mere stardom to legend-om. You can glean the importance of the Dolly role to Carol—and of Carol to that role—because even Carol’s costume became legendary.

The glorious "Hirschfeld" Birthday cake in the photograph below, captures Carol as she was drawn by Hirschfeld in her Dolly dress.

In his exquisite Limited Edition Lithograph, also below, Hirschfeld turns Carol’s "Dolly dress" into Carol’s co-star.

Carol’s co-star, really. In 1964, when Carol won the Tony Award for Best Actress in a Musical, Carol’s dress won a Tony Award, too. Carol 's Tony Award went home with Carol; The Tony Award won by Carol 's Dress went home with Freddy Wittop; it read, For "Best Costume Design."

And now here is a memory from decades ago, brought front and center by my thoughts of Carol on her Birthday:

—Al Hirschfeld's wife was named Dorothy, but had always been called Dolly. Dolly (as Dolly Haas) was a child stage- and film star in her native Europe.

Dolly Haas-Hirschfeld had always enjoyed the name "Dolly," and if, as they say, owners start to look like their dogs, then this was a case of an owner looking like her name. Dolly was suited to Dolly.

But when "Hello, Dolly!" came to Broadway, I found myself marveling at Dolly Hirschfeld’s patience.

It wasn’t only that friend and faux alike would make ostentatious swells of Dolly’s name, filling with elaborations and flourishes their greetings of "Hello, Dolly!" In addition, it seemed that each such salutation was said with the relish of one that believed that he or she had been the first to think of it!

Carol, too, started to be greeted with "Hello, Dolly!" This was an experience that Dolly Hirschfeld and Carol Channing had weathered in common. The rest of us were simply the audience.

Margo Feiden