Will O'Neill

10/23/2026

With 12 days left before the CA election is done, where do things stand?

Statewide, ~2.2 million people have voted out of 23.1mm registered (9.5% turnout). Of those, almost 1.1m are Democrats (49.6%) and ~655k are Republican (29.6%). Folks who are neither R nor D represent 30% of the registered voters, but only 20.8% of the vote.

Orange County, though, is a different story because a whole lot more Republicans are keeping pace. As of last night (10/22), 253.5k people have returned their ballots out of 1.9m ballots sent (~13%). Of those, the difference between Democrats and Republicans is ~5k for Democrats.

This is a big difference compared to four years ago at this same time when Democrats led by 11k. Why the difference? Republican turnout. More than 20k+ Republicans have voted in 2026 compared to 2022. The message about turning out earlier to help candidates spend limited resources on other persuadable voters is having an impact.

And you’re seeing it showing up in specific races too. For example, the 5th District Board of Supervisors race between Diane Dixon and Katrina Foley has already seen government unions spend over $1.5m to help Foley. Despite that massive spend, Republicans continue to outpace Democrats in that district by ~1k. More importantly, Republicans are up 3 points on turnout % and Democrats are down a point from this same time 4 years ago.

Locally, we’re seeing big early numbers from Newport Beach where 52% of all votes cast are Republican (with an early 18% turnout), Huntington Beach Republicans are already up 3.5 points from 4 years ago, and Costa Mesa Republicans are up nearly 5 points from four years ago (and Dems are down 2.5 points).

Look, let’s be honest here. The national narrative and the one that the LA Times wants to write is that Republicans are dispirited and apathetic and won’t vote. But what if we vote? What if we tell our friends to vote? What if we walk, knock, call, text, post, and win?

We might just keep our line in the sand against socialism and Parisian riots. It’s worth the effort. With in-person voting starting tomorrow (10/24), let’s finish strong.

(Thank you for today's pic!)

Resources:

• PDI Orange County - https://tracker.politicaldata.com/?type=County&value=CA+-+Orange+County&s=sub_e6cd7e6896&tab=3
• Civiq tracker - https://abev.civiq.vote/

10/21/2026

There is a consistent claim made by folks (especially on [ugh] Nextdoor) that some races are “non-partisan” and therefore it’s not fair for people to highlight their political affiliation for those seats.

Uh huh.

I’ve seen an uptick this cycle in Newport Beach of people who want to elect Andy Gerken to City Council. Why? Because he’s a Democrat sending campaign contributions to the OC Democratic Party and campaigning for left-wing nutjobs like Chris Kluwe (fired from coaching high school kids, yet wants to control education policy??).

And his supporters really really don’t want you to know that. Why? Because Newport Beach is a heavily Republican city that has consistently rejected the policies that Gerken supports.

(For perspective, there are hundreds fewer Democrats in NB now than 2022, but over a thousand more Republicans than 2022.)

Someone must have recently told Gerken that reminding people regularly that he’s a Democrat doesn’t work in NB. How do I know? Because he scrubbed his endorsements section of his website by removing his endorsements by the OC Democratic Party, OC Young Democrats, and Planned Parenthood. Oh, and he scrubbed endorsements from Kluwe and DUI Dave Min and Robert Garcia.

Either he lost those endorsements or he is trying to hide them from NB voters. Either one is ugly.

And look, this matters because (1) there is a clear difference between Republican and Democrat values in governance and (2) local “non-partisan” electeds lend their titles to partisan offices running for election. And given that Gerken is actively campaigning with Kluwe/Min/Garcia/etc., it’s clear what he would use his title for if elected.

Don’t buy the same 5 people flooding Nextdoor with every complaint under the sun. Don’t buy the single-issue garbage because there is SO MUCH MORE that we need to care about and are going really really well in NB (Mario Marovic and I wrote an op ed touching on this exactly).

It’s time to be adults, vote with nuance, and move NB forward. Vote Stapleton / Weigand / Grant / Kleiman. No LA in NB.

(Thank you .chirps for today's pic!)

Resources:

• Mario Marovic and Will O’Neill - https://www.instagram.com/p/DeKFEd2GzMj/

• Gerken endorsements Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20260928184619/https://www.gerkenfornewport.com/endorsements

• Gerken contributions - https://netfile.com/public/cnb/campaign/filingsByCandidate/216982042-Gerken,%20Andrew

10/19/2026

CalMatters's new 11-minute documentary about California's unbelievable failure on big rig drivers license oversight has to be seen.

A CalMatters investigation found that the DMV often lets profession...

10/19/2026

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. A billion-dollar California program that Newsom launched to much fanfare is now “roiled by allegations of fraud, waste, and poor oversight.”

The LA Times put the story on the front page yesterday morning highlighting that CA’s “California’s Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project” has been a disaster. CA has spent over a billion dollars by subsidizing up to 90% (!!) of hybrid and zero-emission vehicles. At least a quarter of automakers participating in the program are out of the zero-emission market. One EV manufacturer (allegedly) received ~$1m for vehicles that don’t exist.

Even its ostensible goal – reducing air pollution – can’t be proven with actual data and instead “rely heavily on assumptions and estimates.” And the LA Times reports that ~45% … burn fossil fuels.

Sen. Tony Strickland was quoted saying: “Californians are working harder than ever just to make ends meet, so learning that millions of dollars have been mismanaged is both frustrating and insulting.” He’s right.

This comes on the heels of another one of Newsom’s pet projects called “California Volunteers” being called out for failing to properly supervise federal money. Specifically, AmeriCorps’ Office of the Inspector General apparently audited $54mm in grants and discovered that “California Volunteers lacked adequate internal controls or oversight, making it difficult to tell what organizations did with their grants….”

Gosh, sure sounds like Newsom’s efforts on homelessness, doesn’t it?

You won’t find Newsom’s social media team posting about this fraud under his watch. No, no, you’ll see them posting memes and Trump’s name as often as they can. All with your tax dollars. An expanding amount of tax dollars I’d mention.

Indeed, CalMatters reported that Newsom nearly doubled his communications staff since the pandemic. He now has 24 taxpayer-funded employeeds making $2.6mm/yr on his comms team, including a full-time photographer making $212,000 a year.

Such a fraud.

(Thank you for today's pic!)

Resources:

• LA Times “Over $1 billion spent, few miles driven: How California’s flagship clean transit initiative was hit by accusations of fraud and waste” https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2026-10-18/accusations-of-fraud-waste-roil-california-ev-truck-bus-subsidy-program

• LA Times “Clean transit, poor oversight” https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2026-10-18/california-clean-transportation-fraud-allegations

• City Journal “Gavin Newsom’s Empire of Fraud” https://www.city-journal.org/article/gavin-newsom-california-fraud

• Yahoo “Federal audit: California Volunteers mismanaged $10.8M in AmeriCorps grants” https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/federal-audit-california-volunteers-mismanaged-205904949.html

• California Post “Gavin Newsom’s pet volunteer project slapped by federal watchdog over $10.8M in questioned costs” https://nypost.com/2026/10/09/us-news/gavin-newsoms-pet-volunteer-project-slapped-by-federal-watchdog-over-10-8m-in-questioned-costs/

• CalMatters “Inside Gavin Newsom’s taxpayer-funded team that never stops posting” https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/10/gavin-newsom-communications-operation

10/16/2026

California’s legislature, like our U.S. Congress, operates on a two-year cycle. Assembly Speaker Rivas opened up their legislative session at the beginning of 2025 noting this: “our constituents, they don’t feel that the State of California is working for them. That’s their lived experience in this moment. Californians are deeply anxious. They’re anxious about our state’s cost of living.”

So, did they bring down cost of living?

No. And it wasn’t a close call. Gas taxes increased twice since Rivas noted Californians’ concerns. Electricity costs went up. Housing costs went up. Insurance costs went up. Pretty much anything that the legislature could affect went the wrong way.

But what did they do with their time? Well, they started us farther down the path toward a mileage tax. They failed to fund Prop 36 (the “make crime illegal again” legal change that Californians overwhelmingly supported), but kept funding the no-speed train.

Oh, and they repeatedly passed performative legislation focused on fighting President Trump. And they lost … a lot. Just this week, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals struck down a series of laws where California tried to regulate the conduct of federal law enforcement officials. Newsom/Bonta/Rivas ran into this pesky problem: the United States Constitution.

Stated with more legalese, the bipartisan panel said: “In sum, if a state law directly regulates the governmental conduct of the United States without congressional authorization, it is void irrespective of whether the regulated activities are essential to federal functions or operations, and irrespective of the degree to which the state law interferes with such functions or operations.”

We need serious people running for office to actually reduce costs in California. It starts with your vote.

So go out and vote for good policy. Vote asap!

(Thank you for today's pic!)

10/14/2026

Sacramento’s Democratic super-majority genuinely does not care about kids in school.

Which is not to say that Democrats in general don’t care. Specifically, Sacramento’s ruling class doesn’t care. And let me prove it.

The Federal Scholarship Tax Credit is a new federal program that offers individuals a dollar-for-dollar federal income tax credit of up to $1,700 ($3,400 for married couples) for contributions made to approved Scholarship-Granting Organizations. These organizations subsequently distribute the privately donated funds as scholarships for K-12 educational expenses, including private or religious school, homeschooling, tutoring, special education therapies and other education costs. Families earning up to 300 percent of their regional median income are eligible to participate.

Here’s the catch: states have to opt in.

There is literally no downside for a state to op-in. States don’t lose tax dollars because it’s a federal tax credit.

So far, states opting in have included every state run by a Republican Governor plus Colorado (Democrat Governor) and as of this week, New York (Democrat Governor). (Virginia also opted in, but under Republican Youngkin before current Democrat Governor took over.)

Why the partisanship on something this easy? Two reasons. First, the FSTC exists because of the One Big Beautiful Bill passed last year on a party-line vote. Second, teachers’ unions hate programs that allow for school choice.

Which makes CO Governor Polis’s and NY Gov. Hochul’s opt-ins impressive. So to them, kudos.

Democrat Governors from Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Oregon, though, have spurned the additional millions (potentially billions) of dollars. As for California? Crickets.

Look, you can’t protect a school system like LAUSD where a Black student has a 63% chance of scoring below “proficient” in reading and a 72% chance of scoring below “proficient” in math. Well, you can’t protect that system AND root for kids.

Do the right thing Newsom. Opt in.

(Thank you for today's pic!)

Resources:

• On California by David Crane “Encourage Newsom To Opt In To FSTC” https://davidcrane.substack.com/p/encourage-newsom-to-opt-in-to-fstc

• LA Times “So far, California hasn’t joined new federal private school voucher program opening in 30 states” https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-10-01/federal-private-school-tax-credit-scholarship

• California Policy Center “The Federal Scholarship Tax Credit California Is Sitting Out” https://californiapolicycenter.org/the-federal-scholarship-tax-credit-california-is-sitting-out/

• Yahoo “Hochul opts NY into Trump-backed school tax credits despite pushback” https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/hochul-opts-ny-trump-backed-162513738.html

• EdSource “How Los Angeles Unified is narrowing the Black student achievement gap” https://edsource.org/2026/lausd-black-student-achievement-rises/763407

10/12/2026

A whole lot of you have already voted or plan to vote soon. Thank you! Voting soon helps your candidates twice: 1) the vote itself; and 2) the candidates can focus their limited resources on other voters who haven’t voted yet.

So please vote soon and spread that message to friends.

Building on that, let’s talk about the scourge of “under votes”. In political parlance, an under vote happens when a voter selects top-of-ticket races (Governor, etc.) and then leaves races toward the bottom of the ballot blank.

Sometimes this happens because of laziness, but often it’s because folks feel informed about the Governor’s race but have never heard of candidates running for City Council, School District, or Supervisor.

How much does it matter? Well, let’s look at one of Orange County’s most important races: the 5th District Board of Supervisors race.

That race pits Republican Assembly Member Diane Dixon v. Democrat Supervisor Katrina Foley. There are 21,000+ more Republicans than Democrats in that District, but foolish vote splitting by Republicans four (and five) years ago gave the seat away and handed over a budget exceeding $9 billion/year to a leftist ideology.

Yeah, you heard me. The Board of Supervisors control a budget exceeding $9 billion/year, including the Sheriff’s Department. Oh, and Supervisors have land use control over areas like the Dana Point Harbor (Foley’s been a disaster there) and control of a Health Care Agency that can dictate things like mask mandates (which Foley oversaw as Mayor of Costa Mesa).

Think that race might just affect you? Yeah, me too.

In the primary, when Dixon could have prevailed with 50%+1 vote, we had a staggering 12.4% of voters fill out a ballot and choose not to vote in the Supervisor’s race.

Man, that’s so painful. That’s just giving away local races, which more-often-than-not affect your life more than the up-ballot races.

So, I’m begging you to share my voter guides with your friends, family, and neighbors. Every race in NB/HB/CM is covered. And if you have a question on any other local race, just reach out! Many of you already have.

Clear eyes. Full Hearts. Can’t lose. Let’s go!

(Thank you for today's pic!)

Resources:

• Capitol Weekly “Is the Undervote going to be decisive in 2026?” https://capitolweekly.net/is-the-undervote-going-to-be-decisive-in-2026/

• Fleischman - https://x.com/FlashReport/status/2108428497383518231?s=20

10/09/2026

By popular demand, this is my Huntington Beach voter guide.

HB was my first introduction to Orange County when I was a kid and serves as our largest Republican city.

Stand tall HB. Vote and track your ballot to make sure it counts!

10/09/2026

Two of the easiest No votes on your ballots will be Propositions 4 and 5. Let’s take them each in order.

To understand Prop 4, you first need to know that voters banned candidates accepting public money to seek office … in 1988. Because this ban passed via citizen initiative, the legislature can’t change that without voters repealing that 1988 ban.

And guess who really really really wants to use taxpayer dollars to fund their campaigns. Yep, the supermajority in office now. Oh, and the unions who already donate nine figures to the supermajority and the wildly liberal League of Women Voters.

As Jon Fleischman (So Does It Matter on Substack) notes, the localities get to pick who qualifies (“by incumbents, for incumbents”) and the Fair Political Practices Commission won’t police the local programs. What could go wrong?

Even if this weren’t California (it is) and we could trust the legislature (we can’t), public campaign financing is a terrible idea. Subsidizing political campaigns essentially forces citizens to subsidize candidates and political parties that they despise. Do liberals really want their tax dollars to fund communists who are taking over the Democratic Party? Do Democrats really want to fund candidates they call MAGA?

And at a time when cities are struggling to pay for just their public safety, should they really be diverting resources to candidates?

A big NO on 4.

And then there is Prop 5, which is the ultimate incumbent entrenchment. Remember when Newsom was facing recall and you could vote to remove him (yes or no) and then also vote on who you wanted to replace him if he got removed? Well, like Prop 4, the Democrats in Sacramento want to change that too by making the Lieutenant Governor automatically become the Governor if the Governor is recalled.

Can you even name our current Lieutenant Governor? (Full disclosure, I can, but I write these Updates for fun.)

And here’s the crazy thing. For all other offices facing recall, a person can get recalled … and then run for the same position to fill it!

These are easy NO votes on Props 4 and 5.

(Thank you Dingo for today’s pic!)

10/07/2026

Newport Beach residents received a political mailer last week calling past Council Members corrupt for adopting a state-mandated Housing Element in 2022.

The mailer claimed that “corrupt politicians supersized development for their developer donors.” The Council at the time was Duffy Duffield, Kevin Muldoon, Noah Blom, Brad Avery, Joy Brenner, Diane Dixon, and me.

The vote on September 13, 2022 to adopt that Housing Element was unanimous, which means that the mailer accuses all seven of us of being “corrupt.” I surely had policy disagreements with every person on that Council, but never thought that they were corrupt.

So, who funded the mailer? Well, he doesn’t live in Newport Beach, but he sure fits the bill of being a “developer donor!” And since he fired the first shots, let’s set the record straight on Measure H in Newport Beach.

Ken Picerne donated $150,000 to the “Coalition for Responsible Housing” on September 3, 2025. That committee then paid a Las Vegas group to gather signatures in Newport Beach to qualify an initiative.

Why? Well, the OC Register reported that Picerne “has 1,460 units entitled” and editorialized that “if a city approves fewer new units, then those who already have entitlements gain a competitive advantage.”

Oh.

Picerne donated another $835,000 (!!!) to the Coalition across donations on May 6, June 5, and June 29. That money was spent gathering signatures for three awful initiatives to fundamentally change the way Newport Beach is governed. (Remember the folks from Arizona knocking on your door at night or harassing you in shopping centers demanding your signatures?)

And then Picerne donated ANOTHER $255,900 on September 15 to the Coalition. More than a million dollars to fundamentally change Newport Beach!

So yeah, expect more mail and accusations of corruption against guys on the past council like Duffy (who I never saw an ounce of corruption from).

Cynical doesn’t even begin to describe Measure H. Vote No Newport Beach.

(Thank you .chirps for today's pic!)

Resources:

• OC Register “Newport Beach takes its own wrong path on housing” https://www.ocregister.com/2026/01/21/editorial-newport-beach-takes-its-own-wrong-path-on-housing/

• Southern California Opportunity Group -https://prd.cdn.sos.ca.gov/pdf/409/SouthernCa-20260113-Web.pdf

• Voice of OC “Newport Beach Ballots Shipped Overseas Despite Questions on the Election’s Legality” https://voiceofoc.org/2026/09/newport-beach-ballots-shipped-overseas-despite-questions-on-the-elections-legality/

• Voice of OC “OC Judge Forces Newport Beach Leaders to Put Charter Reforms On November Ballot” https://voiceofoc.org/2026/08/oc-judge-forces-newport-beach-leaders-to-put-charter-reforms-on-november-ballot/

• Voice of OC “Who’s Behind the Push for Less Housing in Newport Beach?” https://voiceofoc.org/2026/01/whos-behind-the-push-for-less-housing-in-newport-beach/

• Newport Beach Housing Element Implementation FAQ - https://www.newportbeachca.gov/government/departments/community-development/planning-division/general-plan-codes-and-regulations/general-plan-update/housing-element-faq

• Picerne donations - https://netfile.com/public/cnb/campaign/filingsByFiler/214621316-Coalition%20for%20Responsible%20Housing%20with%20support%20from%20Southern%20California%20Opportunity%20Group,%20LLC