09/25/2026
HYBRID NOR’EASTER WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CT. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADIVISORIES ISSUED
OVERALL SITUATION…
Most of the major computer models are now in fairly good agreement on the track of the weekend Nor’Easter. However, there are still some outliers with different tracks and intensities.
The general situation is for a low currently located approximately 250 east of the Virgina/North Carolina border to move north northwest over the next 36 hours and then curve to the west and move towards the New Jersey coast Sunday morning. This low is forecast to intensify into a Nor’Easter with some sub-tropical characteristics (strong winds around the center, tropical downpours) and some traditional Nor’Easter characteristics (strong winds around the outer circulation).
The following forecast will present the most likely scenario and a reasonable worst case for planning purposes in case the storm is stronger than expected and moves closer to our area.
Between today, Friday September 25, and Monday September 28, Old Saybrook’s high tides are running unusually high because the full moon occurs Saturday, September 26, producing stronger-than-normal astronomical tides. The tide forecast shows highs around 3.9–4.3 ft today, roughly 4.5–4.6 ft Saturday and Sunday, and about 4.9 ft Monday at the Old Saybrook/Ferry Point station. For Old Saybrook from today through Monday, the highest-risk periods for coastal flooding will be around the high tides, especially while the storm is affecting the shoreline. At Old Saybrook/Ferry Point, high tide is approximately 10:44 AM and 10:57 PM Friday, 11:21 AM and 11:34 PM Saturday, 11:57 AM Sunday, and 12:13 AM and 12:35 PM Monday; the exact times vary slightly by tide station. The Saturday morning high tide around 11:20 AM is particularly important because it coincides with the full moon, when tidal ranges are near their maximum. If the storm is producing persistent onshore winds or storm surge, that extra water can be added to the astronomical tide, making Friday night/Saturday morning and Saturday night/Sunday morning the periods I'd watch most closely. The Sunday late-morning high tide around noon and Monday around 12:15 PM remain elevated, although the astronomical tide begins to ease after the full moon.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED…
Wind Advisories have been issued for the entire state starting at 2:00 PM this afternoon until early Sunday morning. Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for Fairfield and New Haven Counties with Flood Advisories issued for coastal Middlesex and New London Counties from 6:00 PM this evening until 6:00 PM Sunday evening.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO…
The most likely scenario at this time is for the low 250 miles to the east of the Virgina/North Carolina border to move north northwest over the next 36 hours (with a loop in the storm track) and then curve to the west Saturday night, moving towards the New Jersey coast Sunday morning.
This low is forecast to intensify into a Nor’Easter with some sub-tropical characteristics (strong winds around the center, tropical downpours) and some traditional Nor’Easter characteristics (strong winds around the outer circulation). The minimum central pressure is expected to range between 985 – 990 millibars (a strong low pressure system).
If the Hybrid Nor’Easter follows this track, the impacts in Connecticut would be expected to range from minor to moderate.
REASONALBLE WORST CASE SCENARIO…
The reasonable worst case scenario at this time is for the low 250 miles to the east of the Virgina/North Carolina border to move more towards the north over the next 36 hours (with a loop in the storm track) and then curve to the west very close to the coast of Long Island Saturday night, moving towards the northern New Jersey coast Sunday morning.
This reasonable worst case low would be stronger (980 Millibars)
and more tropical (stronger winds around the center, more tropical downpours) with fewer traditional Nor’Easter characteristics (strong winds around the outer circulation).
If the Hybrid Nor’Easter follows the reasonable worst case track, the impacts in Connecticut could range moderate to isolated major impacts.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL SCENARIO…
Based on the most likely track, the heaviest rainfall is currently expected to occur over Cape Cod and just south of Connecticut with 4” – 6 in those areas. In this scenario, Connecticut would receive 2” – 3.5 inches of rainfall. This rainfall is currently forecast to occur from tonight thru midnight to Monday and only cause very minor river or stream flooding.
WORST CASE RAINFALL SCENARIO…
The reasonable worst case scenario for planning purposes is represented by the current run of the ICON model which is indicating that a band of heavy rainfall could occur over most of the state between tonight and Monday morning.
If this occurs, towns could expect moderate river and stream flooding along with minor urban flooding aggravated by leaf clogged catch basins.
MOST LIKELY WIND SCENARIO…
The most likely scenario for winds represented by the GFS model, indicates that northeast gusts of 45 – 55 mph will move into the state this afternoon and continue into Sunday morning. These winds combined with moderate rainfall and wet soil could cause a borderline minor to moderate power impact with widespread power outages along the coast and numerous power outages across inland areas.
WORST CASE WIND SCENARIO…
The reasonable worst case wind scenario is currently represented by the HRRR model which indicates that northeast winds could gust to 50 – 65 mph. The strongest winds would be expected to occur from this evening to Saturday evening. The winds would then slowly subside on Sunday and Monday.
When combined with heavy rainfall and saturated soil, these winds could result in a moderate to major impact on trees and powerlines across the state especially during the day on Saturday.
TREE DAMAGE / POWER OUTAGE UPDATE
This hybrid Nor’easter will initially have some warm-core characteristics before transitioning to a cold-core system, which could result in a wind profile more similar to a tropical system than a typical Nor’easter.
• Prolonged Northeast Winds: Wind gusts of 40–60 mph are possible from approximately 5 PM Friday through 7 AM Sunday, creating a long-duration wind event.
• Saturated Ground: Soils are already wet, and an additional 2–4 inches of rainfall could further saturate the ground and reduce the ability of tree root systems to remain anchored.
• Fully Foliated Trees: Unlike a typical winter Nor’easter, when trees are largely bare, trees are currently fully foliated. Leaves significantly increase the surface area exposed to the wind, placing additional stress on limbs, trunks, and root systems.
• Combined Impact: The combination of strong, persistent northeast winds, saturated soils, heavy rainfall, and fully foliated trees could increase the potential for downed trees and tree limbs, blocked roadways, and power outages.
Key Message:
Even if peak wind gusts are not exceptionally high, the duration of the winds and vulnerability of fully foliated trees in saturated soils could make this a higher-impact tree damage event.
COASTAL FLOODING FORECAST…
Minor to moderate flooding is expected along the coast. Moderate flooding is expected along the coast of Fairfield and New Haven counties during three high tide cycles starting late Saturday morning, around midnight Saturday night and around noon on Sunday (exact times and tide levels in MLLW are shown below). The highest impact (close to major levels) is expected on Sunday. Minor flooding is expected along the coast of Middlesex and New London counties during the same time period. Towns can expect significant flooding of low-lying areas (water 1.5 – 2.5 feet deep over low lying roads).
Astro Tide – Astronomical Tide (AKA Normal High Tide at this time of the month) TWL – Total Water Level (Astro Tide + Surge)
BEACH EROSION
A long-duration period of elevated water levels and wave action will increase the potential for significant beach erosion and impacts to vulnerable coastal roadways.
• Long Island Sound Waves: Waves of 4–6 feet are expected across Long Island Sound, increasing to 6–8 feet across eastern portions of the Sound.
• Long-Duration Event: The most significant coastal impacts are expected from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon, allowing multiple tide cycles and prolonged wave action to affect the shoreline.
• Beach Erosion: Persistent wave action on top of elevated water levels could result in significant erosion of beaches and other exposed shoreline areas, particularly during times of high tide.
• Vulnerable Coastal Roads: Low-lying and flood-prone coastal roadways could experience inundation (1.5 – 2.5 feet), wave splash-over, debris, and potentially sand deposition, particularly around high tide.
Key Message:
This is not just a single high-tide concern. Prolonged onshore flow, 4–8 foot waves, elevated astronomical tides, and a 3–4 foot storm surge could produce repeated coastal impacts and substantial beach erosion, and some structural damage through multiple tide cycles.
RESIDENT PREPAREDNESS TIPS
Charge electronics, fuel vehicles, use generators so that exhaust is away from entering homes.
Residents can stay prepared for possible storm impacts by following along with trusted local news networks or other public safety channels. Here are a few tips for Connecticut residents to consider going into this weekend:
Check on neighbors and those who may be differently abled; ensure they have the information and resources they need for a multi-day rain event.
While flooding impacts seem unlikely, it’s good to remember that if you approach a flooded roadway, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown.” Floodwaters can be deeper than expected.
If you live in an area prone to flooding and have propane tanks please tie them down. If you aren’t using the tanks, shut them off.
Share information from trusted news sources such as local television networks and news outlets. By avoiding spreading misinformation, you can better prepare your friends and family.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY FAIR
Forecast confidence is approaching good. The introduction of tropical characteristics into the forecast is still a reason for concern. The major models are in good agreement, however, there remain a few outliers (e.g. the ICON model) and towns should continue to plan for the reasonable worst case (e.g. one category higher than the forecast) just in case this storm intensifies more rapidly and moves closer to our area.
