10/18/2026
This comprehensive summary and analysis was posted by a man who lives very near to the proposed Willow Bend Mall project, and he was also a member of the Arena Citizen’s Advisory Committee, selected by his HOA to serve as their representative on the Committee. Rather than post his comments confined to his HOA’s page, he allowed his observations and analysis to be shared for the subdivisions that did not have representation on the committee because they weren’t in close proximity to the site. Here is his summary and analysis of the Arena and PROP-A proposal.
Please read his analysis below.
Also note that there are concerns regarding debt servicing of the 700M commitment each year, and parking in adjacent neighborhoods for not just Stars games but for concerts and other events held throughout the year.
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Plano Neighbors,
Over the last 7 weeks, I’ve represented you on the Willow Bend District Citizens Committee. Not everyone has the time to attend these meetings or go back and watch all 7 of them, so I wanted to summarize what I see as the main issues for those of you on the fence about the arena. Like most things, there are both pros and cons, and I hope this helps you cut through the noise and make your decision. There are plenty of people with their minds made up, and this post isn’t really intended for you.
What I learned in our meetings:
• Property values. I live very, very close to the mall, so I was concerned. Would the arena hurt resale values? Or would values rise faster than in other areas and price people out with higher property taxes? The information presented to us came from recently built arenas, with analysis of home values before and after construction. It showed arenas have very little impact on neighboring home values. In general, values rose, but at about the same rate as homes farther from the arena.
• The site plan. Centennial has been SLOW to deliver a new site plan to the City and the public. The most recent plan shown to the Committee is nowhere near final, and that is disappointing.
• City financing. Hilltop Securities is the City’s financial advisor, and JPMorgan Chase is the City’s bond underwriter. Unlike people posting made-up numbers on Nextdoor as if they were fact, the City has a top-notch team doing the heavy lifting. Neither firm will sign off on faulty underwriting, and neither will allow the City to take bonds to market that are likely to default.
• No risk to the general fund. As presented to the Committee, the arena bonds would be “special revenue bonds” tied to specific revenue streams: TIRZ revenue and, if voters approve it, the venue taxes in Prop A. They would not be backed by the City’s general fund.
• Redevelopment. We were told the City cannot issue bonds for the arena unless the developer (Centennial) has financing in place for the rest of the redevelopment. If the developer can’t get financing, the arena deal collapses.
• Event costs. The Dallas Stars would pay for day-to-day arena operations. Traffic control, added police presence, and fire and paramedic staffing for events would be paid by whoever hosts the event: the Stars for hockey, promoters for concerts, and so on. The City would not incur costs for the day-to-day use or operation of the arena.
What I believe are the real concerns:
• Traffic. About 9,000 cars will need to get into the site in a short period for events. From what I’ve seen from the traffic consultants, most of that traffic can be accommodated much better than people believe, but it is still a concern. The study shows intersections running at 98–100% efficiency today. With no mitigation, that drops to an average of 51%, with the worst at 41%. With the consultant’s easy and relatively cheap recommendations, it recovers to 82%. In hindsight, I wish I’d asked what the consultant considers an acceptable level of efficiency. We’re at 99% today. Will they design to get us back to 99%, or to 90%? That would tell us a lot about how far we really have to go, and I’ll follow up on this.
• Parking. There are 4,200 spaces on site today. At full development, there need to be north of 9,000 parking spaces available to handle the arena, arena workers, and surrounding businesses operating during events (hotels, restaurants, bars, etc.). Without a site plan, we have no full picture of how and where that parking will be accommodated, and Centennial’s delays aren’t confidence-inspiring. Putting myself in the City’s and the Stars’ position, they have to know this too. The Stars want people in seats, and they’ll be looking to eliminate roadblocks to that goal.
• Unknown costs. How much more than the committed $700M will the City need to spend on infrastructure, mainly roads and intersections? Today that cost is unknown, so we don’t know the City’s full outlay. Presumably they’ll need to know it before issuing bonds (projected for early 2028), because those costs would need to be covered by the same special revenue bonds. Many people also point to water and sewer, but there is already a 1M+ square foot mall on the site. Logic tells me the water and sewer service there is already substantial.
• Public money for sports. Some people simply won’t agree with public financing for sports venues, and I won’t argue with that. I’m on the other side. I see the overall economic development value of cities partnering with developers to bring new development and new tax base.
• The 41-year TIRZ. That is a long time to commit the increase in property taxes around the arena. The bonds could be paid off early, which would shorten the 41 years. By the numbers I’ve seen, the TIRZ alone (with the City’s and PISD’s contributions) is sufficient to pay the $700M in bond debt. Prop A passing adds funding, and that is how I believe the debt could be paid off early. To be clear, Prop A is a set of venue and use taxes (hotel, car rental, event parking, and admissions), not a property tax.
Arena benefits:
• Willow Bend Mall has been non-viable for years. The developer showed the Committee four prior redevelopment plans.
o Plan A removed much of the mall and food court but kept Macy’s, Dillard’s, and Neiman Marcus, adding mixed-use. Then Macy’s announced it was pulling out.
o Plan B demolished the mall west of Neiman’s (including Macy’s) for mixed-use. I’m told it couldn’t get financing.
o Plan C removed more of the mall, kept Dillard’s and Neiman’s, added a movie theater, and redeveloped the rest as mixed-use. I’m told it also couldn’t get financing. (Side note: we certainly don’t need another movie theater in the area.)
o Plan D is mixed-use with a Dallas Stars arena. Is it my chosen path forward? No. But it’s a viable path that allows redevelopment of the site.
Many people think we should wait for Plan E, but we don’t know what Plan E would be or when it would materialize. We do know Plan D is here and appears viable.
• Other malls tell the story. Valley View, Vista Ridge, Town East, Ridgmar, Collin Creek, and Six Flags Mall have all failed or are struggling. Each had its purpose and a period when it thrived, and Willow Bend is no different. We all know it needs to become something else. There’s certainly debate about the arena, but other malls have become industrial warehouses, and some sites sit empty years after closing. Collin Creek’s mixed-use redevelopment has been slow. The arena deal is the one available today, and we don’t know when a Plan F will show up.
• Mixed-use needs an anchor. Centennial has been trying to keep a main draw on the site across all these plans, because there has to be a reason for people to show up. Department stores and a theater were the failed ideas before the arena deal. An arena is a much better anchor than outdated retail or another movie theater. I may not want it in my backyard, but I’m not naive about the reality that it’s better than the prior concepts.
• Vitality for Plano. Plano is an aging, mature city, with the problems that come with that. Revenue has stalled. A rapidly growing share of residents are over 65 and eligible for the property tax freeze. Commercial property is aging and outdated. Public safety costs are rising faster than the tax base. We lack affordable housing. From the City leaders’ perspective, redeveloping Willow Bend is a great way to add vitality, counter the aging trend, and add reasonably priced housing for young professionals.
Misinformation about PISD and the TIRZ
Last, I want to address recent misinformation and media click-bait about PISD’s participation in the TIRZ. PISD is not taking money from kids in Plano or anywhere else in Texas and giving it to the Dallas Stars. So, what is PISD doing?
• PISD is giving up 50% of the new property tax revenue from the TIRZ area, capped at $250 million or 25 years, whichever comes first.
• PISD keeps the other 50% of the new revenue.
• PISD’s models estimate the $250M contribution is completed in about 18 years. Over that same period, PISD projects about $438M in total financial benefit. That is a net of about $188M after the contribution.
• PISD says its contribution is offset by a recapture adjustment, meaning money that would otherwise go to the state stays local.
• PISD expects to save about $750K a year in fees for renting outside venue space, because it can use the arena for those events. These are real budget dollars that go to the classroom.
In short, PISD is giving up 50% of something that doesn’t exist today to net about $188M over roughly 18 years.
I hope this is helpful, and I’m available to answer questions here or by phone or email. DM me and I’ll send my contact info. I simply want everyone to be as educated as possible before they vote. Early voting starts next week!
Sincerely,
Jeff Paschal
Glen Meadows Neighborhood
