10/16/2026
According to CNN data analyst Harry Enten, Republicans could keep control of both the House and Senate if the polls underestimate GOP support by 3 to 4 points this November. Polls underestimated Republicans in both 2016 and 2020, and Enten looked at what would happen if that same pattern repeated itself in the 2026 midterms.
In that scenario, Republicans would hold 53 Senate seats compared to Democrats' 47, while also winning at least 218 seats in the House. That would be enough for Republicans to maintain control of Congress, leaving the party in control of the White House, Senate and House heading into 2027. The map shows what the Senate would look like if Republicans performed several points better than current polling suggests.