Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget

🚨𝗙𝗨𝗟𝗟 𝗔𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗬𝗦𝗜𝗦: Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office released its 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook. The report has been updated from the January 2025 baseline to account for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, tariffs, changes in immigration, recent trends in the economy, and other factors 📈

CBO’s latest projections show:

1️⃣ Debt will reach a record of 𝟭𝟮𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗗𝗣 by 2036.

2️⃣ Deficits will exceed $𝟯 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 by 2036.

3️⃣ Spending is larger and growing faster than revenue.

4️⃣ Interest costs will explode.

5️⃣ Major trust funds are approaching insolvency.

6️⃣ Deficit projections are higher than last year.

7️⃣ The economy will surge then normalize, while interest rates will rise.

Read the full analysis of the report here 👉 https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook

🚨 As policymakers consider extending parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and possibly making other tax changes, there will be discussion about how best to score the deficit effects of any changes.

"Conventional scoring" incorporates the effects of tax changes on individual and business behavior, but it does not account for the effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, inflation, and interest rates, while “dynamic scoring” does incorporate macroeconomic effects.

The following is a statement from CRFB president : https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/policymakers-should-include-dynamic-scores-tax-reform

📰 NEW in Star Tribune: CRFB Co-Chair Tim Penny and Emeritus Member David Minge, both former MN Reps., discuss a worrying Tax Day reality – more and more of our income tax payments go toward interest on the national debt.

They argue our fiscal health hasn't always been this bad – and it can be made better once again.

Read more: https://startribune.com/taxes-increasingly-paying-for-the-past-not-the-future/600359361/

🚨NEW STATEMENT🚨 The Congressional Budget Office released its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook today, projecting the nation’s finances over the next 30 years.

CBO projects that the debt held by the public will hit a new record share of the economy in just four years and grow to 166 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2054.

CBO also projects that the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund in 2035, and the Highway Trust Fund in 2028.

The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

"This is yet another reminder that politicians put political priorities ahead of the long-term health of the country. There is no way to look at these eye-popping numbers without realizing we need to make a change. And yet we have lawmakers promising what they won’t do: I won’t raise taxes, I won’t fix Social Security, I won’t pay for all the things I do want to do. And so we continue on this dangerous path.

"Despite some recent progress with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, our debt remains on an unsustainable trajectory. Even under current law, CBO projects debt will double as a share of the economy relative to pre-pandemic levels. And major trust funds supporting Social Security, highways, and Medicare face looming insolvency.

"So far, the presidential campaign is not offering any hope – candidates need to be asked how they would fix Social Security, fix Medicare, and bring the debt back to manageable levels. Voters should not be satisfied without specific answers.

"The scariest part of our grim fiscal outlook is rising interest costs. Those costs have already doubled as a share of the economy since 2015, and this year CBO believes interest will cost more than defense spending or Medicare. By 2053, interest costs will double again after becoming the single largest line item in the entire federal budget in 2051. This year, we will spend $870 billion on interest – more than all the federal dollars we spend on children – and that number will only grow from here..."

Click here to read the full statement on our website: https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/cbo-presents-grim-long-term-fiscal-outlook

🚨 BREAKING: President Biden released his Fiscal Year 2025 budget request today, including a number of tax and spending proposals and a roadmap for the country’s finances over the next decade.

Under the President’s budget, based on its own estimates, the national debt would rise to $45.1 trillion or 105.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2034, from $27.4 trillion or about 97 percent of GDP today. The budget would reduce deficits by a net $3.3 trillion over the next decade, relative to its baseline.

The following is a statement from CRFB president Maya MacGuineas:

CRFB Reacts to the President’s FY 2025 Budget | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget President Biden released his Fiscal Year 2025 budget request today, including a number of tax and spending proposals and a roadmap for the country’s finances over the next decade.

🚨 FULL ANALYSIS 🚨 of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)'s February 2024 Budget and Economic Outlook ⤵️

➡️ Debt will reach record 116% of GDP by 2034;
➡️ Deficits will reach $2.6 trillion by 2034;
➡️ Spending and revenue will remain far apart;
➡️ Interest costs will explode;
➡️ Major trust funds are approaching insolvency;
➡️ The FRA improved the fiscal outlook;
➡️ Inflation will fall; growth will remain steady; interest rates remain high.

Read all the findings at https://crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2024-budget-and-economic-outlook

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 How has America's fiscal situation deteriorated so badly since a budget surplus in 2001?

In our new analysis, we looked at this in two ways:

➡️ By estimating the impact of significant policy changes since 2001;
➡️ By comparing spending and revenue levels as a share of GDP in 2001 to those in 2023.

What we found: contrary to popular belief, both spending increases and revenue reductions (in most cases, bipartisan) can explain the growth in deficits and debt.

👉 Read "From Riches to Rags" here:

From Riches to Rags: Causes of Fiscal Deterioration Since 2001 | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget In 2001, the U.S. federal government ran a $128 billion budget surplus and was on course to pay off the national debt by 2009.

🚨NEW STATEMENT: According to press reports, policymakers may be close to reaching a bipartisan tax cut deal that would temporarily restore various business tax breaks while temporarily expanding the Child Tax Credit.

The deal would reportedly cost about $100 billion over a decade as scored but could set the stage for over $800 billion in tax cuts.

Expanding the Child Tax Credit by roughly $50 billion retroactive to 2023 through 2025 could cost $180 billion through 2033 if made permanent. Reviving the business tax breaks under discussion would cost about $50 billion through 2025 but would cost closer to $650 billion through 2033 if made permanent.

Congress may also consider additional spending measures in the coming months that could add over $1 trillion more to the deficit if made permanent. See our recent analysis on these policies here.

The following is a statement by Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

"It’s hard to overstate the hypocrisy driving this deficit-financed tax cut effort. The politicians warning that deficits are out of control are teaming up with those who are denouncing tax cuts to pass yet another deficit-exploding tax cut bonanza.

"2023 has been a good year fiscally – Congress and the President have enacted $1.3 trillion of ten-year deficit reduction – a downpayment on what is needed. With near-record debt levels and exploding interest payments, now is not the time to undermine that progress.

"Some will claim this package is necessary to boost business investment and support American children. But without offsets, the higher debt will crowd out private investment and burden our children.

"We don’t think voters want Congress to borrow another $100 billion, let alone another $800 billion, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget strongly recommends they do not."

Click here to read the full statement online: https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/congress-should-avoid-costly-tax-cut-holiday-season