01/10/2026
Guaranteed aftercare needed as youth reoffending rises
AltGovSG's Shadow Ministry for Social Policies today releases its Shadow Report on Youth Rehabilitation and Reoffending, calling on the Government to measure whether young people rebuild stable lives after rehabilitation—not simply whether they complete a programme or court order.
Based on the Ministry of Social and Family Development’s September 2026 trends report, our analysis finds that two-year recidivism among youths who completed Tier 1 and Tier 2 programmes rose from 9.1% for the 2022 cohort to 10.3% for the 2023 cohort.
Among youths aged 16 to below 18, the rate rose more sharply, from 7.8% to 12.2%. These are outcomes for youths who completed programmes in 2023 and were followed for two years; they are not 2025 programme outcomes.
The Government also reports a 31.4% two-year recidivism rate for the 2023 Tier 3 cohort—43 of 137 youths released from more intensive regimes. Tier 3 serves youths with more complex needs, and its recidivism measure differs from the measure used for Tier 1 and Tier 2. The figures should not be treated as a like-for-like test of programme effectiveness. They do, however, underscore the need for sustained support when youths return to the community.
“Completing an order is not the same as completing rehabilitation,” said Ravi Philemon, Shadow Minister for Social Policies.
“The real test is what happens next. Does that young person return to school or work? Is there a stable home to return to? Is help available when the formal programme ends? Public safety depends on getting those answers right.”
AltGovSG's Shadow Ministry for Social Policies recognises the work of families, youth workers, social-service agencies, probation officers and correctional staff. The Government’s high completion rates are welcome. But completion alone does not show whether the conditions that contributed to offending have changed, or whether support continues after discharge.
The published report does not provide a full account of subsequent offence types, education and employment outcomes, housing stability, family support or the intensity of aftercare.
The Shadow Report calls for:
✅ A two-year aftercare guarantee for youths leaving MSF Youth Homes, reformative training, prison and Community/Drug Rehabilitation Centre, with a named case coordinator and a practical education, work and family-support plan.
✅ Family-centred intervention where caregiving conditions and relationships contribute to risk.
✅ Annual public reporting on reoffending, education, employment, housing, mental-health support and aftercare, with clear safeguards for young people’s privacy.
✅ Independent evaluation of major youth rehabilitation programmes.
✅ Targeted prevention of scam-mule recruitment among youths.
The need for prevention is growing. Singapore’s youth offending rate rose from 4.8 per 1,000 youths in 2024 to 5.6 in 2025. The number of youths recorded under cheating and related offences increased from 814 to 1,114; the Government reports that many such cases involved youths acting as scam mules.
“Singapore must be firm about offending and serious about rehabilitation,” Mr Philemon said.
“That means supporting families earlier, preventing young people from being drawn into scams, and making sure those leaving intensive programmes do not face the transition alone. We should judge success by safer communities and better futures for young people—not by a completion certificate.”
We call on MSF and the relevant agencies to respond to the report’s recommendations and publish fuller outcome data, so Parliament and the public can assess what works.
The full report: “AltGovSG’s Shadow Report on Youth Rehabilitation and Reoffending”
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nIvZrlcLO-a8hau4EH5bNayU5GtPDZso/view?ref=altgovsg.online
